Export Prices YoY

Export Prices YoY is the 12-month % change in the US Export Price Index from the same month a year earlier. The index measures average price change in exported goods rather than price levels. It is published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

It covers nearly all merchandise goods exports plus two services only: air passenger fares and air freight. It says nothing about domestic consumer prices or import prices. The program began in 1971, and the first all-goods export index appeared in early 1984 for the fourth quarter of 1983.

Prices should reflect trade in the reference month and are collected as close as possible to the first day of that month. The index appears monthly at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, usually in the second week after the reference month. Each release also covers US import prices, with tables for index values, relative importance (price-updated export shares), and monthly and 12-month % changes.

It adds destination indexes, terms of trade, and air freight and passenger fare indexes. Monthly data may be revised during the 3 months after first release, then stay final. Weights and classifications update each January using trade from two years earlier. The base is 2000=100 where possible, with no seasonal adjustment.

End-use groups drive the headline, and their shares below are percent of all exports.

• Agricultural commodities, 12.156%: farm and food-origin exports.
• Nonagricultural commodities, 87.844%: all other exports and the headline anchor.
• Foods, feeds, and beverages, 11.150%: food exports for human and animal use.
• Industrial supplies and materials, 46.013%: the largest end-use driver, covering durable and nondurable inputs.
• Fuels and lubricants, 23.708%: the volatile swing part inside industrial supplies.
• Capital goods, automotive vehicles, and consumer goods: finished goods whose monthly moves stay small.

For example, the June 2022 release (published July 15, 2022) showed export prices up 0.7% on the month and 18.2% on the year. The index moved from 165.0 to 166.2. Nonagricultural prices rose 0.9% on the month and 18.7% on the year, more than offsetting a 0.3% monthly fall in farm prices.

Those farm prices still stood 14.8% above the prior year. Nonagricultural industrial supplies led with a 1.8% gain. Fuels and lubricants jumped 4.3% on the month and 82.8% on the year, while capital goods and consumer goods each slipped 0.1%.

1. Matched-item pricing: The same item with the same terms is repriced each month, using border transaction prices excluding taxes and duties.
2. Weights: Annual Census trade values fix shares for the year, updated each January using trade from two years earlier.
3. Aggregation: Each item relative (current price over base price) is weighted by base revenue, forming a Lowe index (fixed basket) chained from the prior month.
4. Gaps: Missing prices first use group-based imputation (filling from the parent group move) then interpolation (averaging surrounding actuals) inside the revision window. For example, a missing $20 item is initially filled at $30, then revised to $25, the average of $20 and $30.
5. Quality change: Surveyed shifts keep pure price change only through link prices that subtract the quality value, while unmeasured shifts trigger substitution.
6. YoY change: It equals (current index minus index 12 months ago) over the older index times 100, using rounded indexes to one decimal.