The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy. It is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure because it captures changes in consumer behavior more accurately than the CPI. The quarterly (QoQ) figure provides a snapshot of inflation momentum within the broader GDP report.
Calculated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) using a Fisher-type chain-weighted index formula. It utilizes data from business surveys rather than consumer surveys to determine price changes.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | 3.60 | 3.40 | +0.20 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 3.40 | 3.50 | -0.10 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 4.40 | 4.40 | 0.00 |
| May 28, 2026 | 4.40 | 4.30 | +0.10 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 4.30 | 4.10 | +0.20 |
| Apr 9, 2026 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 0.00 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 0.00 |
| Feb 20, 2026 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 0.00 |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 |
| Sep 25, 2025 | 2.60 | 2.50 | +0.10 |
| Aug 28, 2025 | 2.50 | 2.60 | -0.10 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | 2.50 | 2.30 | +0.20 |
| Jun 26, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.40 | +0.10 |
| May 29, 2025 | 3.40 | 3.50 | -0.10 |
| Apr 30, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.30 | +0.20 |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2.60 | 2.70 | -0.10 |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2.70 | 2.50 | +0.20 |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 2.20 | 2.10 | +0.10 |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2.10 | 2.20 | -0.10 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2.20 | 2.10 | +0.10 |
| Sep 26, 2024 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 0.00 |
| Aug 29, 2024 | 2.80 | 2.90 | -0.10 |
| Jul 25, 2024 | 2.90 | 2.70 | +0.20 |
| Jun 27, 2024 | 3.70 | 3.60 | +0.10 |
| May 30, 2024 | 3.60 | 3.70 | -0.10 |
| Apr 25, 2024 | 3.70 | 3.40 | +0.30 |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2.00 | 2.10 | -0.10 |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 2.10 | 2.00 | +0.10 |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2.00 | 2.30 | -0.30 |
| Nov 29, 2023 | 2.30 | 2.40 | -0.10 |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2.40 | 2.50 | -0.10 |
| Sep 28, 2023 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 0.00 |
| Aug 30, 2023 | 3.70 | 3.80 | -0.10 |
| Jul 27, 2023 | 3.80 | 4.00 | -0.20 |
| Jun 29, 2023 | 4.90 | 5.00 | -0.10 |
| May 25, 2023 | 5.00 | 4.90 | +0.10 |
| Apr 27, 2023 | 4.90 | 4.70 | +0.20 |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 4.40 | 4.30 | +0.10 |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 4.30 | 3.90 | +0.40 |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 3.90 | 4.00 | -0.10 |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 4.60 | 4.50 | +0.10 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 |
| Sep 29, 2022 | 4.70 | 4.40 | +0.30 |
| Aug 25, 2022 | 4.40 | 4.40 | 0.00 |
| Jul 28, 2022 | 4.40 | 4.50 | -0.10 |
| Jun 29, 2022 | 5.20 | 5.10 | +0.10 |
| May 26, 2022 | 5.10 | 5.20 | -0.10 |
