This indicator measures the median expectation of consumers regarding the inflation rate over the next 12 months. It is based on the Survey of Consumer Expectations conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Policymakers monitor these figures closely as inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling by influencing wage negotiations and spending behavior.
The data is derived from a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. It calculates the median point estimate of expected inflation over a one-year horizon based on consumer responses.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | 3.60 | 3.80 | -0.20 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | 3.70 | 3.20 | +0.50 |
| Jun 8, 2026 | 3.50 | 3.80 | -0.30 |
| May 7, 2026 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 0.00 |
| Apr 7, 2026 | 3.40 | 3.70 | -0.30 |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 3.00 | 3.10 | -0.10 |
| Feb 9, 2026 | 3.10 | 3.40 | -0.30 |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3.40 | 3.20 | +0.20 |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3.20 | 3.10 | +0.10 |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3.20 | 3.40 | -0.20 |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3.40 | 3.10 | +0.30 |
| Sep 8, 2025 | 3.20 | 3.10 | +0.10 |
| Aug 7, 2025 | 3.10 | 3.00 | +0.10 |
| Jul 8, 2025 | 3.00 | 3.20 | -0.20 |
| Jun 9, 2025 | 3.20 | 3.60 | -0.40 |
| May 8, 2025 | 3.60 | 4.00 | -0.40 |
| Apr 14, 2025 | 3.60 | 3.30 | +0.30 |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3.10 | 3.20 | -0.10 |
| Feb 10, 2025 | 3.00 | 3.10 | -0.10 |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 3.00 | 3.10 | -0.10 |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2.90 | 3.00 | -0.10 |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3.00 | 2.90 | +0.10 |
| Sep 9, 2024 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Aug 12, 2024 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Jul 8, 2024 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Jun 10, 2024 | 3.20 | — | — |
| May 13, 2024 | 3.30 | 3.10 | +0.20 |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 3.00 | 2.90 | +0.10 |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Feb 12, 2024 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 3.00 | 3.30 | -0.30 |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3.40 | 3.80 | -0.40 |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 0.00 |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3.70 | 3.20 | +0.50 |
| Sep 11, 2023 | 3.60 | 3.40 | +0.20 |
| Aug 14, 2023 | 3.50 | 3.80 | -0.30 |
| Jul 10, 2023 | 3.80 | 3.90 | -0.10 |
| Jun 12, 2023 | 4.10 | 4.20 | -0.10 |
| May 8, 2023 | 4.40 | 4.50 | -0.10 |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 4.70 | 4.00 | +0.70 |
| Mar 13, 2023 | 4.20 | 5.10 | -0.90 |
| Feb 13, 2023 | 5.00 | 4.70 | +0.30 |
| Jan 9, 2023 | 5.00 | 5.20 | -0.20 |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 5.20 | 5.80 | -0.60 |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 5.90 | 5.30 | +0.60 |
| Oct 11, 2022 | 5.40 | 5.50 | -0.10 |
| Sep 12, 2022 | 5.70 | 6.10 | -0.40 |
| Aug 8, 2022 | 6.20 | 6.70 | -0.50 |
| Jul 12, 2022 | 6.80 | 6.60 | +0.20 |
