Pending Home Sales YoY

Pending Home Sales YoY is the year over year percent change of the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), an index of signed contracts. NAR, the National Association of Realtors and a 1.5 million member trade group, compiles it monthly from listing and broker records. The sample draws on over 100 listing services and 60 large brokers and covers about 40% of listing data each month. It covers contracts signed for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops, not new homes, prices or completed closings.

Contract activity parallels closings in the following 2 months, so the index leads closings by 1 to 2 months. The year over year change compares the reference month with the same span 12 months earlier to show demand direction.

NAR publishes the index monthly based on contracts signed during the reference month. Each release arrives toward the end of the month after the reference month, about 4 weeks later, at 10:00 AM Eastern. Each release shows the national index with monthly and yearly changes plus 4 regional breakdowns, tables and a closings date note.

One table entry carries a preliminary flag and another carries a revised flag for data correction. Abnormal cancellation rates can trigger adjustments to correct distortions in contract trends.

The headline, the national aggregate, combines 4 regional contract signals.

• Northeast: captures signed contracts for existing homes in the Northeast.
• Midwest: captures signed contracts for existing homes in the Midwest.
• South: captures signed contracts for existing homes in the South.
• West: captures signed contracts for existing homes in the West.
• United States: aggregates the sample into the national headline index; NAR states no regional weights.

In an example from publisher data, the national index stood at 70.2, the lowest reading on record in that series history. Pending transactions fell 5.5% on the month and 8.5% on the year, so 70.2 meant activity about 30% below the base-year baseline.

Contract signings fell on the month in all 4 regions. On the year the Northeast rose 2.4% to 64.6 while the Midwest fell 11.4% to 67.8. The South fell 11.5% to 83.5 and the West fell 6.0% to 56.2.

1. Collect: NAR gathers pending sales, accepted contracts recorded as pending, from the listing and broker sample for the reference month.
2. Index: Divide reference-month contract activity by base-year average activity and multiply by 100. For example, scaled activity of 356000 against a base-year average of 500000 gives 71.2.
3. Adjust: NAR publishes seasonally adjusted figures and not seasonally adjusted figures. Percent changes use the seasonally adjusted index.
4. Year over year change: Divide the reference month adjusted index by the index 12 months earlier, subtract 1 and multiply by 100. For example, 71.2 against 74.7 recorded 12 months earlier gives a 4.7% decline.