New Home Sales

Monthly New Residential Sales, called New Home Sales, tracks US sales of new privately owned single-family houses built for sale. A sale counts when a contract is signed or a deposit accepted, at any construction stage, even before permit. The sample spans 169 sampling units, 900 permit offices and 80 land areas, with permits for 1 to 4 units drawn 1 in 50. It excludes resales (existing homes), closings (final purchases), multifamily units, custom, owner-built and rental houses, and it supports only national and 4 regional estimates.

Collection starts the day after the reference month and runs through the 7th working day, meaning a weekday excluding federal holidays. The release follows around the 17th working day after the reference month at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. Each release carries regional sales and inventory, median (middle) and average (mean) prices, months' supply, and splits by stage, price and financing.

The prior 3 months are revised each time, and the April release revises 63 prior months for seasonal factors. The first estimate is revised 3.6% on average, trends need 3 months, and agencies and lenders read it for demand.

Published breakdowns show where demand and supply sit, since the survey uses no weights.

• Sold by Census Region: regional sales estimates for Northeast, Midwest, South and West that sum to the US total.
• For sale by Census Region: end-of-period inventory showing available supply in each region.
• Stage of construction: sales and inventory split across not started, under construction and completed units. Only about 25% sell at completion.
• Sold by sales-price range: mix shifts across 7 price brackets that move median and average prices.
• Median and average sales price: national middle and mean for the improved lot agreed at first contract, excluding later extras.
• Months' supply and financing: inventory-to-sales ratio plus median months completed homes sit, with a quarterly financing split across conventional, FHA, VA and cash.

December 2024 sales (released January 27, 2025) stood at 698,000 SAAR. Sales rose 3.6% (±19.7%) from November and 6.7% (±16.2%) from December 2023, so both moves were noise. October 2024 had printed only 615,000 SAAR before rebounding, a sampling-error whiplash, not two market turns.

While the headline ended 2024 almost flat, completed units for sale rose from 81,000 to 118,000. Median months for sale since completion ticked from 2.5 to 2.8 months. Median price was $427,000 as the under-$300,000 share rose from 15% to 20%, showing builders discounting to clear finished stock.

1. Sample: field staff sample permits in about 900 offices plus canvass land areas, then re-interview each project monthly for start, completion, sale and price.
2. Ratio-adjust to the universe: scale sample results with 4 regional permit ratios and adjust for pre-permit sales and late reports by construction stage. The final adjustment runs about 12%.
3. Seasonally adjust: run X-13ARIMA-SEATS, the Census seasonal program, to remove seasonal and calendar effects; sales get calendar adjustment, inventory does not.
4. Annualize and divide: multiply adjusted monthly sales by 12 to get SAAR, an annualized pace that describes the month rather than forecasting it. The US sold total sums the 4 regional estimates. For example, 52,000 sales with a 0.9455 factor gives about 55,000 monthly and 660,000 SAAR. With 495,000 for sale, months' supply is 9.0 months.
5. Show uncertainty: publish relative standard errors (sampling precision) and 90% intervals; a move whose interval contains zero is not significant. Trends need 3 months; at an 11% error on 660,000 the interval spans ±119,400.