Existing Home Sales

Existing-Home Sales (EHS), from the National Association of Realtors (NAR, a US real estate trade group), tracks completed closings of lived-in homes. It draws on Multiple Listing Services (MLSs, regional databases of listed homes) and covers single-family homes, townhomes, condos and co-ops. It reports the nation plus the Northeast, Midwest, South and West, capturing over 90% of total US home sales. It excludes new homes, pending signings, or signed but unclosed deals, and pure price growth holding quality fixed.

NAR publishes the report monthly around mid-month for the prior calendar month at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. Local Realtor boards submit that month of closings by the 15th of the next month, while late reports wait for revision. Each release shows SAAR with monthly and yearly change, medians by nation, region and home type, inventory and months of supply. It adds days on market, first-time, cash, investor and distressed shares, mortgage rates and chief economist Lawrence Yun's comment.

Seasonal factors revise each February over 3 years, and weights re-anchor yearly to American Community Survey benchmarks.

Sales move mainly with inventory and mortgage rates, through the pieces below.

• Single-family homes: the bulk of closings, reported with its own annualized rate and median price.
• Condominiums and co-ops: 1 combined line with its own annualized rate and median price.
• Four census regions: the Northeast, Midwest, South and West, whose estimates build the national total.
• Median price: the middle price level, where half sell for more and half for less, not the average skewed by top deals.
• Inventory and months of supply: unsold stock and tightness, where 6 months marks balance and less favors sellers.
• Market mix: days on market plus first-time, cash, investor and distressed shares plus mortgage rates as context.

In October 2023, released November 21, 2023, sales fell 4.1% to 3.79 million annualized, down 14.6% yearly across all 4 regions. It was the weakest since August 2010 after 5 straight monthly drops, yet the median price rose 3.4% to $391,800. That was a 4th straight yearly gain, with all 4 regions higher, while inventory stood at 1.15 million units, or 3.6 months.

Homes sat 23 days, with 28% first-time buyers, 29% cash and 15% investors as mortgage rates averaged 7.44%. Full-year 2023 closed at 4.09 million, the lowest since 1995, while the yearly median set a record $389,800. The lesson is that volume can collapse while prices still rise when stock is scarce.

1. Collect closings: gather monthly closed deals from the MLS board sample, split into 4 census regions.
2. Clean the sample: remove bad records from jurisdiction shifts, vendor or staff changes, nonresponse and errors.
3. Weight and benchmark: scale regional counts to true activity and anchor yearly totals to Census American Community Survey benchmarks.
4. Adjust and annualize: divide by the X-13 seasonal factor, a Census method for normal swings, then multiply by 12. For example, 300,000 raw closings scale to 315,900, then divided by 0.97 give 325,670 per month, or about 3.91 million annualized.
5. Price medians: take the middle deal price for the nation, regions and home types, with no seasonal adjustment. Shifts in the mix of homes sold move it.
6. Months of supply: divide unsold units by the monthly sales pace, or SAAR divided by 12. For example, 1,150,000 divided by 325,670 gives about 3.5 months.