The Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. It combines several individual economic indicators that typically lead changes in the overall economy, such as building permits, stock prices, and consumer expectations. A rising index suggests economic expansion in the coming months, while a declining trend can signal a potential recession.
The index is calculated as a weighted average of 10 components, including manufacturing hours, jobless claims, new orders, and interest rate spreads, adjusted for volatility.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | 0.20 | 0.10 | +0.10 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | -0.10 | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| May 22, 2026 | 0.20 | -0.10 | +0.30 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 0.30 | -0.20 | +0.50 |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 0.00 | -0.10 | +0.10 |
| Feb 19, 2026 | -0.20 | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| Jan 23, 2026 | -0.30 | -0.20 | -0.10 |
| Dec 9, 2025 | -0.30 | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Sep 18, 2025 | -0.50 | -0.20 | -0.30 |
| Aug 21, 2025 | -0.10 | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| Jul 21, 2025 | -0.30 | -0.20 | -0.10 |
| Jun 20, 2025 | -0.10 | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| May 19, 2025 | -1.00 | -0.90 | -0.10 |
| Apr 21, 2025 | -0.70 | -0.50 | -0.20 |
| Mar 20, 2025 | -0.30 | -0.20 | -0.10 |
| Feb 20, 2025 | -0.30 | -0.10 | -0.20 |
| Jan 22, 2025 | -0.10 | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 0.30 | -0.10 | +0.40 |
| Nov 21, 2024 | -0.40 | -0.30 | -0.10 |
| Oct 21, 2024 | -0.50 | -0.30 | -0.20 |
| Sep 19, 2024 | -0.20 | -0.30 | +0.10 |
| Aug 19, 2024 | -0.60 | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Jul 18, 2024 | -0.20 | -0.30 | +0.10 |
| Jun 21, 2024 | -0.50 | -0.30 | -0.20 |
| May 17, 2024 | -0.60 | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Apr 18, 2024 | -0.30 | -0.10 | -0.20 |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 0.10 | -0.20 | +0.30 |
| Feb 20, 2024 | -0.40 | -0.30 | -0.10 |
| Jan 22, 2024 | -0.10 | -0.30 | +0.20 |
| Dec 21, 2023 | -0.50 | -0.40 | -0.10 |
| Nov 20, 2023 | -0.80 | -0.70 | -0.10 |
| Oct 19, 2023 | -0.70 | -0.40 | -0.30 |
| Sep 21, 2023 | -0.40 | -0.50 | +0.10 |
| Aug 17, 2023 | -0.40 | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| Jul 20, 2023 | -0.70 | -0.60 | -0.10 |
| Jun 22, 2023 | -0.70 | -0.70 | 0.00 |
| May 18, 2023 | -0.60 | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Apr 20, 2023 | -1.20 | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Mar 17, 2023 | -0.30 | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Feb 17, 2023 | -0.30 | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Jan 23, 2023 | -0.80 | -0.70 | -0.10 |
| Dec 22, 2022 | -1.00 | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| Nov 18, 2022 | -0.80 | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| Oct 20, 2022 | -0.40 | -0.30 | -0.10 |
| Sep 22, 2022 | -0.30 | -0.10 | -0.20 |
| Aug 18, 2022 | -0.40 | -0.50 | +0.10 |
| Jul 21, 2022 | -0.80 | -0.50 | -0.30 |
| Jun 17, 2022 | -0.40 | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| May 19, 2022 | -0.30 | — | — |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2026 | -0.20 | -0.10 | +0.10 ↑ |
| May 22, 2026 | 0.10 | 0.20 | +0.10 ↑ |
| Mar 19, 2026 | -0.10 | 0 | +0.10 ↑ |
