GDP Sales QoQ

Final sales of domestic product is a quarterly BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) demand gauge. It covers goods and services produced by labor and property in the United States, minus the change in private inventories (unsold stock). The Bureau publishes it with GDP in the NIPAs (National Income and Product Accounts) since 1947, and it is not a survey. It is not headline GDP (which keeps inventories), GDI (Gross Domestic Income from production), gross domestic purchases (United States buying wherever made), or monthly activity.

Each vintage covers the 3 calendar months of the quarter, with no fixed survey window. BEA publishes advance, second, and third estimates near the ends of months 1, 2, and 3 after the quarter, embargoed until 8:30 AM Eastern Time. Check the release schedule for exact dates each quarter.

The advance rests on incomplete source data, while later vintages use fuller data. The same release also reports real GDP, trade, investment, government spending, and prices, with later vintages adding income, profits, and industry detail. Annual updates arrive in late July for at least 3 years, and comprehensive updates come about every 5 years back to 1929.

5 demand parts move final sales; inventory swings sit outside it.

• Personal consumption expenditures: household and nonprofit buying of durable goods, nondurable goods, and services, the largest part of GDP.
• Gross private fixed investment: the investment kept in final sales, with nonresidential structures, equipment and software/intellectual property, plus residential building.
• Change in private inventories: the part left out of final sales, and the wedge between GDP and final sales, in percentage points and dollars.
• Net exports of goods and services: exports minus imports, where imports subtract in GDP math.
• Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: federal defense and nondefense spending plus state and local spending.

The advance estimate for Q4 2012 showed real GDP down 0.1% annualized against 3.1% in Q3, while final sales rose 1.1% against 2.4%. It was released January 30, 2013, and the second estimate followed February 28, 2013 on fuller data. Inventories cut 1.27 percentage points from growth after adding 0.73 points in Q3. Firms added $20.0 billion after $60.3 billion in Q3 and $41.4 billion in Q2.

Federal spending fell 15.0%, defense 22.2%, and exports 5.7%. PCE rose 2.2%, nonresidential 8.4%, and residential 15.3% as imports fell 3.2%. The second estimate put GDP at 0.1% and sales at 1.7%; demand stayed positive while the headline changed sign.

1. Nominal GDP (spending at current prices): Add PCE plus gross domestic investment, with fixed building plus inventories, plus government spending plus exports minus imports. Source data come from the Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and others.
2. Nominal final sales (without stock swings): Subtract inventory change from GDP to get PCE plus fixed investment plus government plus net exports. For example, those parts sum to 150, and inventory growth of 2 gives GDP of 152.
3. Real values (inflation-adjusted levels): Deflate nominal values with chain-type Fisher indexes, the geometric mean of Laspeyres and Paasche measures. Use weights from the 2 adjacent quarters or years, and chain changes over time. Multiply the reference value by the index and divide by 100 to get chained dollars. Reference dollars were 2005 in 2013 releases and 2017 in later handbooks, with no effect on growth rates.
4. Seasonal adjustment (smoothing yearly patterns): Remove average yearly effects like weather and holidays so trends stand out. Use adjusted source data where given, or X-13 ARIMA software, and add up adjusted parts. Multiply quarterly levels by 4 to show the yearly pace.
5. Growth rate (% change at yearly pace): Compute change from unrounded data and annualize with a compound-interest formula. For example, GDP from 152 to 151 falls 0.66% quarterly, about minus 2.6% annualized. Sales from 150 to 151 rise 0.67%, about 2.7% annualized.