The Atlanta Fed GDPNow is a 'nowcasting' model that provides a running estimate of real GDP growth for the current quarter. Unlike official forecasts, it is purely mathematical and updates automatically as new economic data points, such as employment or retail sales, are released. It offers market participants a real-time glimpse into economic performance before the official Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data is published. It is widely followed for its ability to capture rapid shifts in economic momentum.
The model aggregates various high-frequency data releases and applies a methodology similar to that used by the BEA to estimate GDP components, updating the forecast with each relevant data release.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | 4.80 | 4.60 | +0.20 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | 4.00 | 4.30 | -0.30 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 5.80 | 5.90 | -0.10 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 1.50 | 1.60 | -0.10 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 0.00 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | 1.30 | 1.40 | -0.10 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 3.00 | 2.80 | +0.20 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 3.00 | 3.80 | -0.80 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Apr 21, 2026 | 1.20 | 1.30 | -0.10 |
| Apr 9, 2026 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 0.00 |
| Mar 23, 2026 | 2.00 | 2.30 | -0.30 |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2.30 | 2.70 | -0.40 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 0.00 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2.70 | 2.10 | +0.60 |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2.10 | 3.00 | -0.90 |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3.00 | 3.10 | -0.10 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 0.00 |
| Feb 20, 2026 | 3.10 | 3.00 | +0.10 |
| Feb 19, 2026 | 3.00 | 3.60 | -0.60 |
| Feb 18, 2026 | 3.60 | 3.70 | -0.10 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | 3.70 | 4.20 | -0.50 |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 4.20 | 5.40 | -1.20 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 5.40 | 5.40 | 0.00 |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 5.40 | 5.30 | +0.10 |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 5.30 | 5.10 | +0.20 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 5.10 | 5.40 | -0.30 |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2.70 | 3.00 | -0.30 |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3.00 | 3.50 | -0.50 |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.80 | -0.30 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 0.00 |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3.90 | 4.00 | -0.10 |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 4.20 | 4.00 | +0.20 |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Oct 27, 2025 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 0.00 |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3.90 | 3.80 | +0.10 |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 0.00 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | 3.80 | 3.90 | -0.10 |
| Sep 26, 2025 | 3.90 | 3.30 | +0.60 |
| Sep 16, 2025 | 3.40 | 3.10 | +0.30 |
| Sep 10, 2025 | 3.10 | 3.00 | +0.10 |
| Sep 4, 2025 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Sep 2, 2025 | 3.00 | 3.50 | -0.50 |
| Aug 29, 2025 | 3.50 | 2.20 | +1.30 |
| Aug 19, 2025 | 2.30 | 2.50 | -0.20 |
| Aug 7, 2025 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 2.10 | 2.30 | -0.20 |
