The Philly Fed Employment index is a sub-component of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, which tracks labor market conditions in the Third Federal Reserve District. It measures whether manufacturers are increasing or decreasing their workforce levels, providing an early signal for the national Nonfarm Payrolls report. A reading above zero indicates that more firms are hiring than firing, reflecting strength in the regional industrial sector. This indicator is highly regarded for its timeliness and correlation with broader employment trends.
The index is calculated as a diffusion index: the percentage of respondents reporting an increase in employment minus the percentage reporting a decrease. Neutral responses are excluded from the calculation.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | 27.90 | — | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 7.90 | — | — |
| May 21, 2026 | -2.80 | — | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | -5.10 | — | — |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 9.70 | — | — |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 12.90 | — | — |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 6.00 | — | — |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 4.60 | — | — |
| Sep 18, 2025 | 5.60 | — | — |
| Aug 21, 2025 | 5.90 | — | — |
| Jul 17, 2025 | 10.30 | — | — |
| Jun 20, 2025 | -9.80 | — | — |
| May 15, 2025 | 16.50 | — | — |
| Apr 17, 2025 | 0.20 | — | — |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 19.70 | — | — |
| Feb 20, 2025 | 5.30 | — | — |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 11.90 | — | — |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 6.60 | — | — |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 8.60 | — | — |
| Oct 17, 2024 | -2.20 | — | — |
| Sep 19, 2024 | 10.70 | — | — |
| Aug 15, 2024 | -5.70 | — | — |
| Jul 18, 2024 | 15.20 | — | — |
| Jun 20, 2024 | -2.50 | — | — |
| May 16, 2024 | -7.90 | — | — |
| Apr 18, 2024 | -10.70 | — | — |
| Mar 21, 2024 | -9.60 | — | — |
| Feb 15, 2024 | -10.30 | — | — |
| Jan 18, 2024 | -1.80 | — | — |
| Dec 21, 2023 | -1.70 | — | — |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 0.80 | — | — |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Sep 21, 2023 | -5.70 | — | — |
| Aug 17, 2023 | -6.00 | -0.70 | -5.30 |
| Jul 20, 2023 | -1.00 | -4.50 | +3.50 |
| Jun 15, 2023 | -0.40 | -4.40 | +4.00 |
| May 18, 2023 | -8.60 | -5.20 | -3.40 |
| Apr 20, 2023 | -0.20 | -2.60 | +2.40 |
| Mar 16, 2023 | -10.30 | 6.00 | -16.30 |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 5.10 | 11.00 | -5.90 |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 10.90 | 3.00 | +7.90 |
| Dec 15, 2022 | -1.80 | 8.00 | -9.80 |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 7.10 | 29.00 | -21.90 |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 28.50 | 10.00 | +18.50 |
| Sep 15, 2022 | 12.00 | 25.00 | -13.00 |
| Aug 18, 2022 | 24.10 | 23.00 | +1.10 |
| Jul 21, 2022 | 19.40 | 26.00 | -6.60 |
| Jun 16, 2022 | 28.10 | 25.00 | +3.10 |
| May 19, 2022 | 25.50 | 43.00 | -17.50 |
