Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | 5.00 | 6.00 | -1.00 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 6.70 | 6.70 | 0.00 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 6.90 | 4.00 | +2.90 |
| May 14, 2026 | 4.80 | 3.30 | +1.50 |
| Apr 21, 2026 | 4.20 | 2.40 | +1.80 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 3.70 | 2.90 | +0.80 |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3.20 | 2.00 | +1.20 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | 2.40 | 2.90 | -0.50 |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.00 | +0.30 |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3.50 | 2.70 | +0.80 |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 4.30 | 3.90 | +0.40 |
| Sep 16, 2025 | 5.00 | 3.20 | +1.80 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 3.90 | 3.50 | +0.40 |
| Jul 17, 2025 | 3.90 | 3.60 | +0.30 |
| Jun 17, 2025 | 3.30 | 4.90 | -1.60 |
| May 15, 2025 | 5.20 | 1.10 | +4.10 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | 4.60 | 2.60 | +2.00 |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 3.10 | 3.50 | -0.40 |
| Feb 14, 2025 | 4.20 | 3.70 | +0.50 |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3.90 | 4.00 | -0.10 |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 0.00 |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2.80 | 1.90 | +0.90 |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1.70 | 1.60 | +0.10 |
| Sep 17, 2024 | 2.10 | 2.20 | -0.10 |
| Aug 15, 2024 | 2.70 | 1.80 | +0.90 |
| Jul 16, 2024 | 2.30 | 2.10 | +0.20 |
| Jun 18, 2024 | 2.30 | 2.80 | -0.50 |
| May 15, 2024 | 3.00 | 3.80 | -0.80 |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 4.00 | 2.50 | +1.50 |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1.50 | 1.00 | +0.50 |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 0.60 | 5.80 | -5.20 |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 5.60 | 4.00 | +1.60 |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 4.10 | 2.10 | +2.00 |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2.50 | 2.10 | +0.40 |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3.80 | 1.50 | +2.30 |
| Sep 14, 2023 | 2.50 | 2.90 | -0.40 |
| Aug 15, 2023 | 3.20 | 1.50 | +1.70 |
| Jul 18, 2023 | 1.49 | 1.60 | -0.11 |
| Jun 15, 2023 | 1.60 | 1.00 | +0.60 |
| May 16, 2023 | 1.60 | 1.40 | +0.20 |
| Apr 14, 2023 | 2.90 | 3.20 | -0.30 |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 5.40 | 4.30 | +1.10 |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 6.40 | 4.50 | +1.90 |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 6.00 | 5.00 | +1.00 |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 6.50 | 7.90 | -1.40 |
| Nov 16, 2022 | 8.30 | 6.90 | +1.40 |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 8.20 | 8.00 | +0.20 |
| Sep 15, 2022 | 9.10 | 9.00 | +0.10 |
| Aug 17, 2022 | 10.30 | 8.10 | +2.20 |
| Jul 15, 2022 | 8.40 | 6.50 | +1.90 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | 6.70 | 6.70 | 0 ↓ |
| May 14, 2026 | 4.90 | 4.80 | -0.10 ↓ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | 4 | 4.20 | +0.20 ↑ |
