Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM

Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM is the seasonally adjusted monthly % change in retail and food services sales minus car dealers. It comes from MARTS, the advance monthly retail trade and food services survey of the US Census Bureau. It covers about 4,800 firms representing over 3 million businesses, with calendar effects removed. It keeps shops plus food services and drinking places, but excludes most other services and price effects. It is an input to the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures estimates, an early gauge of goods demand.

Firms report calendar-month sales online or by phone, with follow-up from the 3rd to the 6th business day after the month, and response is voluntary. Census releases advance estimates about 10 business days after month-end at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, with dates shifting for weekends and federal holidays. Each release shows the dollar level with monthly MoM% and annual YoY%, 90% margins and tables, and revises the prior month with larger MRTS data. Annual revisions align levels to yearly surveys and refresh seasonal factors, and readers weigh direction and 90% significance, where * flags a range covering zero.

Ex-auto sums every retail line except car dealers, so broad shop demand plus fuel and food services set its path.

• Nonstore retailers: electronic shopping and mail-order houses, the online channel.
• Food services & drinking places: restaurants and bars, a services line still kept in ex-auto.
• Gasoline stations: fuel sales still kept in ex-auto, so oil price swings pass straight through.
• Food & beverage stores: grocery stores plus beer, wine and liquor shops.
• General merchandise stores: department stores, warehouse clubs and supercenters.
• Clothing & accessories stores: apparel, shoes and related personal wear.

In the August 15, 2024 release, July 2024 headline sales rose 1.0% while ex-auto rose only 0.4%, since motor vehicle and parts dealers jumped 3.6%. That auto jump rebounded from a 3.4% drop in June, when headline sales fell 0.2% yet ex-auto grew 0.5%. Autos thus drove the headline in both months while underlying retail kept growing. The same release showed nonstore retailers up 6.7% from 12 months earlier and food services and drinking places up 3.4%.

1. Sample: Census draws about 4,800 firms from the monthly survey sample, grouped into 36 industry strata with size substrata, with weights from 1 to 1,000.
2. Matched responses: For each industry, Census uses firms reporting for both the current and prior months, with almost no estimates for missing replies.
3. Link-relative ratio: Divide weighted sales for the current month by weighted sales for the prior month across matched firms. For illustration, 46.0m / 45.0m = 1.0222.
4. Advance level and ex-auto: Multiply the ratio by the prior month preliminary level, sum industries for the total, then subtract car dealers. For illustration, 1.0222 x 900.0m = 920.0m.
5. Concurrent seasonal adjustment: Adjust the series for seasonal, holiday and trading-day effects, but not for price changes. Census runs the X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal software, then aligns levels to yearly surveys.
6. MoM% and significance: MoM% equals 100 x (current month minus prior month) / prior month on adjusted ex-auto dollars. A move counts only if its 90% range excludes zero, marked * otherwise.