Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM

Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM measures month to month change in United States retail stock excluding car dealers. It comes from the Census Bureau Monthly Retail Trade Survey of about 13000 employer firms selling to final consumers. The cut removes only NAICS 441 for car dealers, while gasoline stations and other retail kinds remain in scope. It tracks stock of unsold goods at cost, not sales, and feeds national output through national accounts in current dollars.

Dollar values stay in current dollars with no price adjustment, so moves mix price and volume. It excludes factory and wholesale stocks and food service stocks, which come from other surveys. It still includes gasoline stations and all other retail kinds besides car dealers.

Each month sampled firms report sales and end of month stock for the month just ending. Sales appear at 8:30 and inventories at 10:00 Eastern about 6 weeks after month end. Each release shows sales, stock and stock to sales ratio for months of supply, both adjusted and unadjusted. The retail part joins wholesale and factory data in a combined aggregate for total business.

Advance total retail estimates are revised here with more detail and benchmarked to annual totals. Seasonal models are reviewed each spring with carry forward factors for later months. There is no target level, and small moves whose 90% range includes zero are called insignificant.

Moves reflect stock shifts across retail kinds, read as change and months of supply with no target level. The cut excludes only NAICS 441 so all other retail kinds drive the result.

• Furniture, home furnishings, electronics and appliances: durables heavy stock for homes and household equipment.
• Building materials, garden equipment and supplies: large ticket stocks linked to construction and renovation projects.
• Food and beverage stores: fast turning perishable stock with low months of supply.
• Clothing and clothing accessories stores: seasonal fashion stock with high months of supply.
• General merchandise stores: the largest ex autos stock group, including department store goods.
• Other retail: health, gasoline, sporting goods, miscellaneous and nonstore sellers and their stocks.

1. Collect: Each sampled firm reports dollar sales and end of month merchandise stock at cost, including stores and servicing warehouses.
2. Fill gaps: Missing values are replaced by model prediction using survey and administrative data, covering about 35.1% of stock.
3. Weight and sum: Monthly totals sum reported and filled values times weight from 1 to 500 with births phased over 3 months.
4. Benchmark and aggregate: Monthly totals align to annual totals, and ex autos sums retail minus car dealers. Cells below 50% response or above 30% variation are hidden.
5. Adjust for seasonality: Adjusted estimates use X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal software, while dollars stay in current dollars.
6. Headline change: The headline is change times 100 plus ratio for months of supply. For example, 552709 versus 550781 is 0.350% or 0.4%, while 552709 over 477021 gives 1.16 months.