The 5-Year Note Auction is a monthly event where the U.S. Treasury sells medium-term debt to finance government operations. The auction's high yield reflects investor demand and expectations for interest rates and inflation over the next five years. It is a benchmark for various consumer loans, including auto loans and fixed-rate business financing.
The Treasury uses a Dutch auction format where competitive and non-competitive bids are submitted, and the yield is determined by the highest accepted bid that clears the total offering amount.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 5.03 | — | — |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 4.39 | — | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 4.41 | — | — |
| Jun 24, 2026 | 4.20 | — | — |
| May 27, 2026 | 4.18 | — | — |
| Apr 27, 2026 | 3.96 | — | — |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3.98 | — | — |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3.62 | — | — |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3.82 | — | — |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3.75 | — | — |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 3.56 | — | — |
| Oct 27, 2025 | 3.63 | — | — |
| Sep 24, 2025 | 3.71 | — | — |
| Aug 27, 2025 | 3.72 | — | — |
| Jul 28, 2025 | 3.98 | — | — |
| Jun 25, 2025 | 3.88 | — | — |
| May 28, 2025 | 4.07 | — | — |
| Apr 23, 2025 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 4.10 | — | — |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 4.12 | — | — |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 4.33 | — | — |
| Dec 24, 2024 | 4.48 | — | — |
| Nov 26, 2024 | 4.20 | — | — |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 4.14 | — | — |
| Sep 25, 2024 | 3.52 | — | — |
| Aug 28, 2024 | 3.65 | — | — |
| Jul 24, 2024 | 4.12 | — | — |
| Jun 26, 2024 | 4.33 | — | — |
| May 28, 2024 | 4.55 | — | — |
| Apr 24, 2024 | 4.66 | — | — |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 4.24 | — | — |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 4.32 | — | — |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 4.05 | — | — |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3.80 | — | — |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 4.42 | — | — |
| Oct 25, 2023 | 4.90 | — | — |
| Sep 27, 2023 | 4.66 | — | — |
| Aug 28, 2023 | 4.40 | — | — |
| Jul 25, 2023 | 4.17 | — | — |
| Jun 27, 2023 | 4.02 | — | — |
| May 24, 2023 | 3.75 | — | — |
| Apr 26, 2023 | 3.50 | — | — |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3.67 | — | — |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 4.11 | — | — |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 3.53 | — | — |
| Dec 28, 2022 | 3.97 | — | — |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3.97 | — | — |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 4.19 | — | — |
| Sep 27, 2022 | 4.23 | — | — |
| Aug 24, 2022 | 3.23 | — | — |
The latest reading is 2.5 standard deviations above the mean.
