The reading has risen in each of the last 4 releases.
The 10-Year Note Auction is a key event where the U.S. Department of the Treasury sells government debt to finance federal operations. The 10-year Treasury note is considered a benchmark for the global bond market and influences mortgage rates and other consumer loans. The auction's success is measured by the 'bid-to-cover' ratio and the final yield compared to the pre-auction rate. Strong demand often signals investor confidence in the U.S. economy or a flight to safety during times of market stress.
The Treasury uses a single-price Dutch auction process where all successful bidders receive the same interest rate or yield. Bids are categorized as competitive (specifying a yield) or non-competitive (accepting the determined yield).
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | 5.30 | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | 4.83 | — | — |
| Aug 12, 2026 | 4.68 | — | — |
| Jul 8, 2026 | 4.58 | — | — |
| Jun 10, 2026 | 4.54 | — | — |
| May 12, 2026 | 4.47 | — | — |
| Apr 8, 2026 | 4.28 | — | — |
| Mar 11, 2026 | 4.22 | — | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | 4.18 | — | — |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 4.17 | — | — |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 4.17 | — | — |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 4.07 | — | — |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 4.12 | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2025 | 4.03 | — | — |
| Aug 6, 2025 | 4.25 | — | — |
| Jul 9, 2025 | 4.36 | — | — |
| Jun 11, 2025 | 4.42 | — | — |
| May 6, 2025 | 4.34 | — | — |
| Apr 9, 2025 | 4.43 | — | — |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 4.31 | — | — |
| Feb 12, 2025 | 4.63 | — | — |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 4.68 | — | — |
| Dec 11, 2024 | 4.24 | — | — |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 4.35 | — | — |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 4.07 | — | — |
| Sep 11, 2024 | 3.65 | — | — |
| Aug 7, 2024 | 3.96 | — | — |
| Jul 10, 2024 | 4.28 | — | — |
| Jun 11, 2024 | 4.44 | — | — |
| May 8, 2024 | 4.48 | — | — |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 4.56 | — | — |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 4.17 | — | — |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 4.09 | — | — |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 4.02 | — | — |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 4.30 | — | — |
| Nov 8, 2023 | 4.52 | — | — |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 4.61 | — | — |
| Sep 12, 2023 | 4.29 | — | — |
| Aug 9, 2023 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Jul 12, 2023 | 3.86 | — | — |
| Jun 12, 2023 | 3.79 | — | — |
| May 10, 2023 | 3.45 | — | — |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 3.46 | — | — |
| Mar 8, 2023 | 3.98 | — | — |
| Feb 8, 2023 | 3.61 | — | — |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 3.58 | — | — |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3.63 | — | — |
| Nov 9, 2022 | 4.14 | — | — |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 3.93 | — | — |
| Sep 12, 2022 | 3.33 | — | — |
The latest reading is 3.3 standard deviations above the mean.
