Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | — | 7.10 | — |
| Aug 25, 2026 | 7.70 | 7.00 | +0.70 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 8.00 | 3.70 | +4.30 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | 4.90 | 4.90 | 0.00 |
| May 26, 2026 | 5.20 | 2.50 | +2.70 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | 3.30 | 1.90 | +1.40 |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 7.70 | 1.30 | +6.40 |
| Mar 5, 2026 | -3.40 | 1.00 | -4.40 |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 0.90 | 1.20 | -0.30 |
| Dec 24, 2025 | 1.40 | 0.90 | +0.50 |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 1.90 | 0.50 | +1.40 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | -2.20 | 0.70 | -2.90 |
| Sep 25, 2025 | 0.40 | -2.80 | +3.20 |
| Aug 26, 2025 | -3.60 | 2.00 | -5.60 |
| Jul 23, 2025 | -2.90 | -1.00 | -1.90 |
| Jun 24, 2025 | -1.60 | 0.30 | -1.90 |
| May 23, 2025 | -0.60 | 0.90 | -1.50 |
| Apr 23, 2025 | 0.40 | — | — |
| Mar 25, 2025 | -3.80 | 4.00 | -7.80 |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 5.30 | 1.00 | +4.30 |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2.90 | 4.80 | -1.90 |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1.80 | 1.00 | +0.80 |
| Nov 25, 2024 | -0.50 | 2.80 | -3.30 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3.20 | 1.90 | +1.30 |
| Sep 25, 2024 | 1.10 | 2.70 | -1.60 |
| Aug 23, 2024 | 3.40 | 4.50 | -1.10 |
| Jul 23, 2024 | 3.90 | 2.60 | +1.30 |
| Jun 24, 2024 | 2.40 | -1.20 | +3.60 |
| May 23, 2024 | 1.60 | 1.00 | +0.60 |
| Apr 23, 2024 | 0.70 | 4.80 | -4.10 |
| Mar 25, 2024 | 9.30 | -0.80 | +10.10 |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 0.30 | 3.40 | -3.10 |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1.10 | 7.00 | -5.90 |
| Dec 25, 2023 | 7.30 | — | — |
| Nov 23, 2023 | 5.10 | 9.00 | -3.90 |
| Oct 23, 2023 | 6.00 | 5.80 | +0.20 |
| Sep 23, 2023 | 4.30 | — | — |
| Aug 23, 2023 | 5.30 | — | — |
| Jul 24, 2023 | 13.90 | — | — |
| Jun 26, 2023 | 16.60 | — | — |
| May 23, 2023 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Apr 24, 2023 | 7.10 | — | — |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 4.60 | — | — |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 4.20 | — | — |
| Feb 1, 2023 | 9.40 | — | — |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1.40 | — | — |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2.10 | — | — |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2022 | 12.00 | — | — |
| Aug 23, 2022 | 17.20 | — | — |
| Jul 25, 2022 | 22.50 | — | — |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | 4.90 | 4.90 | 0 ↓ |
| Apr 23, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.30 | +0.10 ↑ |
