Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | — | 11.00 | — |
| Aug 11, 2026 | 11.80 | 12.00 | -0.20 |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 12.80 | 9.00 | +3.80 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | 11.70 | 19.00 | -7.30 |
| May 11, 2026 | 21.70 | 13.20 | +8.50 |
| Apr 13, 2026 | 15.60 | 14.50 | +1.10 |
| Mar 11, 2026 | 18.80 | 15.80 | +3.00 |
| Feb 11, 2026 | 16.30 | 13.20 | +3.10 |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 14.20 | 14.50 | -0.30 |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 15.00 | 12.00 | +3.00 |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 14.30 | 9.00 | +5.30 |
| Oct 10, 2025 | 12.20 | 11.00 | +1.20 |
| Sep 11, 2025 | 13.00 | 13.50 | -0.50 |
| Aug 12, 2025 | 14.70 | 15.10 | -0.40 |
| Jul 11, 2025 | 17.70 | 7.50 | +10.20 |
| Jun 16, 2025 | 11.50 | 7.80 | +3.70 |
| May 12, 2025 | 9.20 | 10.50 | -1.30 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | 12.20 | 9.00 | +3.20 |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 12.50 | 12.90 | -0.40 |
| Feb 11, 2025 | 13.50 | 15.60 | -2.10 |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 16.40 | 14.10 | +2.30 |
| Dec 11, 2024 | 15.00 | 17.00 | -2.00 |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 15.90 | 9.00 | +6.90 |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 13.30 | 6.40 | +6.90 |
| Sep 11, 2024 | 5.40 | 9.20 | -3.80 |
| Aug 12, 2024 | 8.60 | 8.40 | +0.20 |
| Jul 11, 2024 | 5.80 | 15.00 | -9.20 |
| Jun 11, 2024 | 10.20 | 22.00 | -11.80 |
| May 13, 2024 | 19.40 | 18.90 | +0.50 |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 25.10 | 11.20 | +13.90 |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 13.30 | 10.50 | +2.80 |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 11.40 | 9.00 | +2.40 |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 12.80 | 13.50 | -0.70 |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 13.70 | 12.90 | +0.80 |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 13.80 | 15.60 | -1.80 |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 17.20 | 30.60 | -13.40 |
| Sep 12, 2023 | 31.00 | 27.50 | +3.50 |
| Aug 11, 2023 | 28.50 | 27.20 | +1.30 |
| Jul 13, 2023 | 28.40 | 24.00 | +4.40 |
| Jun 13, 2023 | 27.50 | 18.90 | +8.60 |
| May 12, 2023 | 28.60 | 7.10 | +21.50 |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 21.50 | 22.30 | -0.80 |
| Mar 13, 2023 | 33.90 | 16.40 | +17.50 |
| Feb 13, 2023 | 21.80 | 2.80 | +19.00 |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 12.10 | 8.90 | +3.20 |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 9.50 | 9.00 | +0.50 |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 9.70 | — | — |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 9.00 | 2.50 | +6.50 |
| Sep 13, 2022 | 2.00 | 5.10 | -3.10 |
| Aug 12, 2022 | 5.50 | 14.50 | -9.00 |
| Jul 14, 2022 | 20.80 | 6.20 | +14.60 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 13.7 | 12.8 | -0.90 ↓ |
| Jun 16, 2026 | 11.4 | 11.7 | +0.30 ↑ |
| May 11, 2026 | 21.2 | 21.7 | +0.50 ↑ |
