Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | — | 4.30 | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 4.00 | 4.80 | -0.80 |
| Jul 6, 2026 | 3.00 | 6.00 | -3.00 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 5.40 | 3.80 | +1.60 |
| May 5, 2026 | 4.60 | 7.60 | -3.00 |
| Apr 6, 2026 | 8.30 | 1.90 | +6.40 |
| Mar 5, 2026 | -0.40 | 3.10 | -3.50 |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2.70 | 5.50 | -2.80 |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 6.30 | — | — |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 4.50 | 2.50 | +2.00 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2.80 | 2.00 | +0.80 |
| Oct 3, 2025 | 5.20 | 2.50 | +2.70 |
| Sep 5, 2025 | 4.80 | 2.00 | +2.80 |
| Aug 5, 2025 | 2.30 | 0.90 | +1.40 |
| Jul 4, 2025 | 1.40 | 0.60 | +0.80 |
| Jun 5, 2025 | 0.30 | 1.80 | -1.50 |
| May 5, 2025 | 1.10 | 1.20 | -0.10 |
| Apr 4, 2025 | -3.60 | 2.10 | -5.70 |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 4.50 | -2.00 | +6.50 |
| Feb 5, 2025 | -2.90 | 1.40 | -4.30 |
| Jan 3, 2025 | -0.70 | — | — |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2.20 | 0.80 | +1.40 |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2.00 | 1.00 | +1.00 |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 0.60 | 0.40 | +0.20 |
| Sep 5, 2024 | 1.00 | 2.30 | -1.30 |
| Aug 5, 2024 | -0.60 | 1.20 | -1.80 |
| Jul 5, 2024 | 2.20 | 0.40 | +1.80 |
| Jun 5, 2024 | -1.20 | 2.20 | -3.40 |
| May 3, 2024 | 2.70 | 1.50 | +1.20 |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 8.40 | -2.00 | +10.40 |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1.30 | 3.50 | -2.20 |
| Feb 5, 2024 | -0.40 | 1.70 | -2.10 |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 2.50 | 0.40 | +2.10 |
| Dec 5, 2023 | -0.10 | -0.30 | +0.20 |
| Nov 3, 2023 | 0.60 | -0.20 | +0.80 |
| Oct 5, 2023 | 4.00 | 0.80 | +3.20 |
| Sep 5, 2023 | 1.10 | 0.90 | +0.20 |
| Aug 4, 2023 | 1.10 | 1.00 | +0.10 |
| Jul 5, 2023 | 1.80 | 2.80 | -1.00 |
| Jun 5, 2023 | 3.60 | 3.10 | +0.50 |
| May 5, 2023 | 4.50 | 2.00 | +2.50 |
| Apr 5, 2023 | 12.70 | 1.00 | +11.70 |
| Mar 3, 2023 | -0.80 | 6.00 | -6.80 |
| Feb 3, 2023 | 7.40 | 3.50 | +3.90 |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 6.20 | 9.00 | -2.80 |
| Dec 5, 2022 | 10.40 | 9.00 | +1.40 |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 11.20 | 11.10 | +0.10 |
| Oct 5, 2022 | 13.00 | 12.00 | +1.00 |
| Sep 5, 2022 | 13.70 | 11.00 | +2.70 |
| Aug 5, 2022 | 14.80 | 16.50 | -1.70 |
| Jul 5, 2022 | 17.80 | 11.80 | +6.00 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 6, 2026 | 3 | 3 | 0 ↓ |
| May 5, 2026 | 4.80 | 4.60 | -0.20 ↓ |
