This indicator measures the median expectation of consumers regarding the inflation rate over the next 12 months. It is based on the Survey of Consumer Expectations conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Policymakers monitor these figures closely as inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling by influencing wage negotiations and spending behavior.
The data is derived from a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. It calculates the median point estimate of expected inflation over a one-year horizon based on consumer responses.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | — | 4.70 | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 6.80 | 5.50 | +1.30 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 5.70 | 5.40 | +0.30 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 5.80 | 5.50 | +0.30 |
| May 28, 2026 | 5.90 | 7.00 | -1.10 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 6.80 | 7.50 | -0.70 |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 6.40 | 6.70 | -0.30 |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 6.50 | 6.30 | +0.20 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 6.50 | 6.80 | -0.30 |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 7.00 | 6.50 | +0.50 |
| Nov 27, 2025 | 7.10 | 6.50 | +0.60 |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 6.70 | 7.00 | -0.30 |
| Sep 24, 2025 | 6.90 | 7.60 | -0.70 |
| Aug 28, 2025 | 7.80 | 7.90 | -0.10 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | 7.90 | 8.30 | -0.40 |
| Jun 26, 2025 | 8.60 | 8.40 | +0.20 |
| May 27, 2025 | 8.90 | 9.70 | -0.80 |
| Apr 29, 2025 | 9.50 | 10.00 | -0.50 |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 9.20 | 7.80 | +1.40 |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 7.50 | 7.00 | +0.50 |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 6.90 | 6.80 | +0.10 |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 6.80 | 6.40 | +0.40 |
| Nov 28, 2024 | 6.30 | 6.00 | +0.30 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 6.00 | 5.60 | +0.40 |
| Sep 26, 2024 | 5.60 | 4.00 | +1.60 |
| Aug 29, 2024 | 6.00 | 6.10 | -0.10 |
| Jul 30, 2024 | 6.20 | 6.00 | +0.20 |
| Jun 27, 2024 | 6.20 | 5.40 | +0.80 |
| May 30, 2024 | 6.20 | 6.00 | +0.20 |
| Apr 25, 2024 | 6.50 | 6.00 | +0.50 |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 6.40 | 6.60 | -0.20 |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 6.80 | 6.90 | -0.10 |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 7.10 | 6.20 | +0.90 |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 0.00 |
| Nov 29, 2023 | 7.10 | 6.80 | +0.30 |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 7.00 | 6.90 | +0.10 |
| Sep 27, 2023 | 7.10 | — | — |
| Aug 30, 2023 | 7.40 | — | — |
| Jul 27, 2023 | 6.80 | — | — |
| Jun 29, 2023 | 6.80 | — | — |
| May 30, 2023 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Apr 27, 2023 | 7.60 | — | — |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 10.10 | — | — |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 10.30 | — | — |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 10.20 | — | — |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 10.30 | — | — |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 11.10 | — | — |
| Sep 28, 2022 | 11.80 | — | — |
| Aug 30, 2022 | 10.30 | — | — |
| Jul 28, 2022 | 10.60 | — | — |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | 7.30 | 6.40 | -0.90 ↓ |
