Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 6.20 | 5.50 | +0.70 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 7.70 | 5.10 | +2.60 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 8.00 | 4.10 | +3.90 |
| May 29, 2026 | 4.70 | 5.50 | -0.80 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 5.80 | 2.40 | +3.40 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2.20 | 3.60 | -1.40 |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 4.10 | 1.70 | +2.40 |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 1.50 | 5.10 | -3.60 |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 5.60 | 3.60 | +2.00 |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3.40 | 4.00 | -0.60 |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 4.30 | 2.90 | +1.40 |
| Sep 30, 2025 | 4.40 | 2.80 | +1.60 |
| Aug 29, 2025 | 2.90 | 1.70 | +1.20 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | 2.00 | 0.50 | +1.50 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | -1.80 | 5.10 | -6.90 |
| May 28, 2025 | 5.30 | 3.40 | +1.90 |
| Apr 29, 2025 | 3.60 | 3.20 | +0.40 |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 2.80 | 3.40 | -0.60 |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3.20 | 5.10 | -1.90 |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 5.60 | 1.50 | +4.10 |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1.60 | 1.40 | +0.20 |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 0.90 | 1.10 | -0.20 |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2.70 | 2.10 | +0.60 |
| Sep 30, 2024 | 0.50 | -0.60 | +1.10 |
| Aug 29, 2024 | -0.50 | 0.10 | -0.60 |
| Jul 29, 2024 | -0.10 | -2.10 | +2.00 |
| Jun 28, 2024 | 0.80 | -0.30 | +1.10 |
| May 29, 2024 | 0.50 | 3.50 | -3.00 |
| Apr 29, 2024 | 1.10 | 1.20 | -0.10 |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 0.30 | -1.40 | +1.70 |
| Feb 29, 2024 | -1.20 | -1.80 | +0.60 |
| Jan 29, 2024 | -2.20 | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| Jan 10, 2024 | -1.70 | -1.70 | 0.00 |
| Nov 29, 2023 | -1.00 | -2.80 | +1.80 |
| Oct 27, 2023 | -3.80 | 0.20 | -4.00 |
| Sep 29, 2023 | -1.70 | — | — |
| Aug 29, 2023 | -2.10 | -2.20 | +0.10 |
| Jul 28, 2023 | -4.40 | -4.50 | +0.10 |
| Jun 29, 2023 | -5.40 | -7.00 | +1.60 |
| May 26, 2023 | -6.50 | — | — |
| Apr 28, 2023 | -11.60 | — | — |
| Mar 29, 2023 | -9.40 | — | — |
| Feb 27, 2023 | -7.50 | — | — |
| Jan 27, 2023 | -8.00 | — | — |
| Dec 22, 2022 | -6.30 | — | — |
| Nov 29, 2022 | -7.70 | — | — |
| Oct 28, 2022 | -5.90 | — | — |
| Sep 28, 2022 | -5.10 | — | — |
| Aug 29, 2022 | -3.90 | — | — |
| Jul 28, 2022 | -3.60 | — | — |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | 6.60 | 7.70 | +1.10 ↑ |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 8 | 8 | 0 ↓ |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 6.20 | 5.80 | -0.40 ↓ |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2.40 | 2.20 | -0.20 ↓ |
