The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a leading economic indicator derived from monthly surveys of private sector companies. It provides insight into the health of the manufacturing and services sectors by measuring variables such as new orders, inventory levels, production, and employment. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction, making it a critical tool for central banks and investors to gauge economic momentum.
The index is calculated based on a weighted average of survey responses from purchasing managers regarding various business conditions. Respondents report whether conditions have improved, deteriorated, or remained unchanged compared to the previous month.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | 55.30 | 53.50 | +1.80 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 53.80 | 53.20 | +0.60 |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 53.10 | 53.00 | +0.10 |
| Jul 5, 2026 | 53.30 | 53.30 | 0.00 |
| Jun 3, 2026 | 52.80 | 51.30 | +1.50 |
| May 5, 2026 | 51.50 | 50.00 | +1.50 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | 48.80 | 53.00 | -4.20 |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 56.10 | 55.70 | +0.40 |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 56.30 | 56.00 | +0.30 |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 57.40 | 57.80 | -0.40 |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 58.50 | 60.60 | -2.10 |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 60.20 | 57.90 | +2.30 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | 57.80 | 56.20 | +1.60 |
| Sep 3, 2025 | 56.40 | 56.00 | +0.40 |
| Aug 5, 2025 | 56.30 | 56.80 | -0.50 |
| Jul 3, 2025 | 57.20 | 56.00 | +1.20 |
| Jun 3, 2025 | 55.80 | 55.30 | +0.50 |
| May 5, 2025 | 55.60 | 57.50 | -1.90 |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 58.10 | 57.00 | +1.10 |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 58.40 | 57.50 | +0.90 |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 60.50 | 58.00 | +2.50 |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 58.40 | 58.50 | -0.10 |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 59.00 | 56.70 | +2.30 |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 56.90 | 56.10 | +0.80 |
| Oct 3, 2024 | 56.30 | 54.30 | +2.00 |
| Sep 3, 2024 | 54.80 | 54.50 | +0.30 |
| Aug 5, 2024 | 54.40 | 55.70 | -1.30 |
| Jul 3, 2024 | 55.00 | 56.20 | -1.20 |
| Jun 4, 2024 | 56.40 | 56.80 | -0.40 |
| May 5, 2024 | 57.00 | 56.80 | +0.20 |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 57.00 | 55.20 | +1.80 |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 57.20 | 55.70 | +1.50 |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 55.40 | 57.00 | -1.60 |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 57.50 | 57.00 | +0.50 |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 57.50 | 58.00 | -0.50 |
| Nov 5, 2023 | 58.40 | 56.70 | +1.70 |
| Oct 3, 2023 | 57.20 | 56.20 | +1.00 |
| Sep 5, 2023 | 56.60 | 57.10 | -0.50 |
| Aug 3, 2023 | 57.70 | 59.30 | -1.60 |
| Jul 5, 2023 | 59.60 | 58.70 | +0.90 |
| Jun 5, 2023 | 58.50 | 59.30 | -0.80 |
| May 3, 2023 | 59.60 | 58.60 | +1.00 |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 58.70 | 59.40 | -0.70 |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 59.80 | 57.00 | +2.80 |
| Feb 5, 2023 | 58.20 | 56.60 | +1.60 |
The latest reading is within its usual range, less than one standard deviation from the mean.
