The Year-over-Year Economic Activity indicator measures the change in the total output of an economy compared to the same month in the previous year. This metric helps filter out seasonal noise and provides a clearer picture of long-term economic trends and structural growth. It is widely used by analysts to determine if an economy is in an expansionary or recessionary phase relative to its historical performance.
It is calculated by comparing the current month's economic activity index value to the index value of the same month from the prior year, expressed as a percentage change.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 0.00 |
| Feb 20, 2026 | 2.20 | 2.10 | +0.10 |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2.30 | 2.00 | +0.30 |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2.20 | 1.70 | +0.50 |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 1.80 | 1.60 | +0.20 |
| Sep 18, 2025 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 1.70 | 1.50 | +0.20 |
| Jul 18, 2025 | 1.50 | 1.70 | -0.20 |
| Jun 23, 2025 | 1.60 | 1.40 | +0.20 |
| May 15, 2025 | 1.60 | 1.90 | -0.30 |
| Apr 17, 2025 | 2.00 | 1.70 | +0.30 |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1.80 | 1.70 | +0.10 |
| Feb 14, 2025 | 1.60 | 1.00 | +0.60 |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1.30 | 1.40 | -0.10 |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1.30 | 0.70 | +0.60 |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 0.90 | 1.00 | -0.10 |
| Sep 12, 2024 | 0.90 | 1.10 | -0.20 |
| Aug 16, 2024 | 1.20 | 2.00 | -0.80 |
| Jul 18, 2024 | 1.40 | 2.00 | -0.60 |
| Jun 20, 2024 | 1.60 | 2.10 | -0.50 |
| May 16, 2024 | 1.90 | 2.20 | -0.30 |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2.20 | 2.30 | -0.10 |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2.50 | 3.00 | -0.50 |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2.90 | 2.60 | +0.30 |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2.60 | 2.70 | -0.10 |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2.80 | 3.70 | -0.90 |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 4.00 | 3.20 | +0.80 |
| Sep 14, 2023 | 4.30 | — | — |
| Aug 17, 2023 | 4.20 | — | — |
| Jul 13, 2023 | 5.20 | — | — |
| Jun 15, 2023 | 5.20 | — | — |
| May 18, 2023 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 5.30 | — | — |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 4.70 | — | — |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 5.50 | — | — |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 5.20 | — | — |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 5.40 | — | — |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 6.20 | — | — |
| Sep 22, 2022 | 6.40 | — | — |
| Aug 18, 2022 | 6.40 | — | — |
| Jul 21, 2022 | 7.10 | — | — |
| Jun 23, 2022 | 7.10 | — | — |
| May 20, 2022 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Apr 22, 2022 | 5.50 | — | — |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 5.50 | — | — |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 5.50 | — | — |
