Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | — | 2.60 | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 3.00 | 2.50 | +0.50 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 2.70 | 2.20 | +0.50 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | 2.80 | 4.00 | -1.20 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 4.90 | 4.00 | +0.90 |
| May 4, 2026 | 5.50 | 3.60 | +1.90 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 2.80 | 4.00 | -1.20 |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 4.60 | 3.20 | +1.40 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3.10 | 6.00 | -2.90 |
| Dec 30, 2025 | 6.40 | 4.00 | +2.40 |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.80 | -0.30 |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 5.00 | 3.60 | +1.40 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.70 | -0.20 |
| Sep 1, 2025 | 6.20 | 5.00 | +1.20 |
| Jul 31, 2025 | 6.90 | 4.00 | +2.90 |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 4.80 | 2.60 | +2.20 |
| Jun 2, 2025 | 2.10 | 3.20 | -1.10 |
| May 2, 2025 | 4.00 | 2.20 | +1.80 |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 5.00 | 4.90 | +0.10 |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 5.40 | 5.10 | +0.30 |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 6.00 | 5.70 | +0.30 |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 5.80 | 3.50 | +2.30 |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 6.40 | 4.80 | +1.60 |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 5.20 | 2.90 | +2.30 |
| Sep 30, 2024 | 5.30 | 4.40 | +0.90 |
| Aug 29, 2024 | 1.90 | 3.60 | -1.70 |
| Jul 29, 2024 | 3.40 | 1.40 | +2.00 |
| Jun 28, 2024 | 2.80 | 2.60 | +0.20 |
| May 29, 2024 | 1.80 | -1.30 | +3.10 |
| Apr 30, 2024 | 0.40 | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 0.70 | 0.40 | +0.30 |
| Mar 1, 2024 | 0.70 | 0.30 | +0.40 |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 1.00 | 2.80 | -1.80 |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2.10 | 2.50 | -0.40 |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 0.50 | 1.50 | -1.00 |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 1.20 | -1.00 | +2.20 |
| Sep 29, 2023 | -0.30 | — | — |
| Aug 29, 2023 | 3.60 | — | — |
| Jul 28, 2023 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Jun 29, 2023 | 3.10 | — | — |
| May 30, 2023 | 2.40 | — | — |
| May 2, 2023 | 0.40 | — | — |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 0.40 | — | — |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3.40 | — | — |
| Jan 30, 2023 | -1.80 | — | — |
| Dec 30, 2022 | -1.20 | — | — |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 0.50 | — | — |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2.10 | — | — |
| Sep 30, 2022 | 5.40 | — | — |
| Aug 30, 2022 | 4.80 | — | — |
| Jul 29, 2022 | 3.30 | — | — |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | 3 | 2.70 | -0.30 ↓ |
| Jun 29, 2026 | 3.20 | 2.80 | -0.40 ↓ |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 4.30 | 4.90 | +0.60 ↑ |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 4.90 | 2.80 | -2.10 ↓ |
