The Year-over-Year Inflation Rate measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of goods and services compared to the same month in the previous year. It is the primary gauge of purchasing power and is used by central banks to determine monetary policy and interest rate adjustments. High inflation often leads to tighter monetary policy, while low inflation may prompt stimulus measures.
It is calculated by comparing the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the CPI value from one year ago. The formula used is ((Current CPI - Past CPI) / Past CPI) x 100.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | — | 4.20 | — |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4.10 | 4.00 | +0.10 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 4.00 | 4.10 | -0.10 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 0.00 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 3.40 | 3.10 | +0.30 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 2.50 | 2.70 | -0.20 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 0.00 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 0.00 |
| May 29, 2026 | 3.10 | 3.30 | -0.20 |
| May 18, 2026 | 3.00 | 2.90 | +0.10 |
| May 15, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.50 | -0.30 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | 2.70 | 2.50 | +0.20 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | 3.00 | 2.50 | +0.50 |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 0.00 |
| Feb 13, 2026 | 2.20 | 2.00 | +0.20 |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2.70 | 2.80 | -0.10 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2.40 | 2.60 | -0.20 |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2.50 | 2.40 | +0.10 |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2.40 | 2.60 | -0.20 |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 0.00 |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2.80 | 3.00 | -0.20 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 |
| Sep 30, 2025 | 2.90 | 2.70 | +0.20 |
| Sep 15, 2025 | 2.90 | 2.80 | +0.10 |
| Aug 29, 2025 | 2.80 | 3.10 | -0.30 |
| Aug 14, 2025 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 0.00 |
| Jul 31, 2025 | 3.10 | 2.80 | +0.30 |
| Jul 15, 2025 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | 4.10 | 4.00 | +0.10 |
| Jun 13, 2025 | 4.00 | 4.10 | -0.10 |
| May 30, 2025 | 4.10 | 4.30 | -0.20 |
| May 15, 2025 | 4.30 | 4.20 | +0.10 |
| Apr 30, 2025 | 4.20 | 4.30 | -0.10 |
| Apr 15, 2025 | 4.90 | 4.90 | 0.00 |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 4.90 | 5.10 | -0.20 |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 4.90 | 5.30 | -0.40 |
| Feb 14, 2025 | 5.30 | 4.90 | +0.40 |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 4.70 | 4.80 | -0.10 |
| Dec 13, 2024 | 4.70 | 4.60 | +0.10 |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 4.60 | 5.00 | -0.40 |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 4.90 | 4.90 | 0.00 |
| Sep 30, 2024 | 4.90 | 4.80 | +0.10 |
The latest reading is 1.5 standard deviations above the mean.
