Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | — | 3.70 | — |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 3.90 | 4.50 | -0.60 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | 6.20 | 5.20 | +1.00 |
| Jun 22, 2026 | 3.00 | 3.80 | -0.80 |
| May 25, 2026 | 1.30 | 3.00 | -1.70 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | 8.70 | 5.00 | +3.70 |
| Mar 23, 2026 | 5.00 | 6.10 | -1.10 |
| Feb 23, 2026 | 4.40 | 3.10 | +1.30 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 5.30 | 5.50 | -0.20 |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3.10 | 3.90 | -0.80 |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 5.40 | 3.70 | +1.70 |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 6.40 | 6.80 | -0.40 |
| Sep 22, 2025 | 3.10 | 3.30 | -0.20 |
| Aug 25, 2025 | 4.80 | 3.50 | +1.30 |
| Jul 22, 2025 | 2.20 | 4.00 | -1.80 |
| Jun 24, 2025 | 4.40 | 4.40 | 0.00 |
| May 26, 2025 | 7.60 | -0.40 | +8.00 |
| Apr 23, 2025 | -0.30 | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Mar 24, 2025 | -0.50 | 5.00 | -5.50 |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 4.80 | 1.50 | +3.30 |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1.90 | 3.80 | -1.90 |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3.10 | 1.00 | +2.10 |
| Nov 26, 2024 | 1.30 | 0.80 | +0.50 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | -3.00 | 2.10 | -5.10 |
| Sep 23, 2024 | 2.60 | 3.40 | -0.80 |
| Aug 22, 2024 | 4.40 | 5.60 | -1.20 |
| Jul 22, 2024 | 4.40 | 5.30 | -0.90 |
| Jun 24, 2024 | 5.00 | 5.70 | -0.70 |
| May 23, 2024 | 4.10 | 5.10 | -1.00 |
| Apr 23, 2024 | 6.10 | 6.70 | -0.60 |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 6.10 | 4.90 | +1.20 |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3.00 | 1.40 | +1.60 |
| Jan 22, 2024 | -2.30 | 1.50 | -3.80 |
| Dec 21, 2023 | -0.30 | 1.50 | -1.80 |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2.80 | 1.60 | +1.20 |
| Oct 20, 2023 | -0.30 | -2.00 | +1.70 |
| Sep 21, 2023 | -2.70 | -3.90 | +1.20 |
| Aug 22, 2023 | -4.00 | -3.30 | -0.70 |
| Jul 21, 2023 | -4.70 | -4.70 | 0.00 |
| Jun 22, 2023 | -6.80 | -5.60 | -1.20 |
| May 23, 2023 | -7.30 | -7.80 | +0.50 |
| Apr 24, 2023 | -7.30 | -5.90 | -1.40 |
| Mar 21, 2023 | -5.00 | -1.40 | -3.60 |
| Feb 21, 2023 | -0.30 | 1.00 | -1.30 |
| Jan 23, 2023 | 0.20 | 1.40 | -1.20 |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 1.60 | 0.30 | +1.30 |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 18.30 | 21.00 | -2.70 |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 21.90 | 21.50 | +0.40 |
| Sep 21, 2022 | 21.50 | 20.00 | +1.50 |
| Aug 22, 2022 | 18.40 | 18.30 | +0.10 |
| Jul 21, 2022 | 19.90 | 21.50 | -1.60 |
