The announcement by a central bank regarding the short-term interest rate at which it lends to commercial banks. This is the primary tool of monetary policy used to control inflation and stabilize the national economy. Changes in interest rates influence borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, affecting overall spending and investment levels.
Determined by the central bank's governing board after reviewing comprehensive economic data, including inflation trends, GDP growth, and employment figures. The decision is based on the bank's mandate to maintain price stability and support economic growth.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2026 | — | 4.25 | — |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 4.25 | 4.50 | -0.25 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 |
| Jul 9, 2026 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 |
| May 14, 2026 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 |
| Apr 9, 2026 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 |
| Feb 12, 2026 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 |
| Sep 11, 2025 | 4.25 | 4.50 | -0.25 |
| Aug 14, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 |
| Jul 10, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 |
| Jun 12, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 |
| May 8, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.75 | -0.25 |
| Apr 10, 2025 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 |
| Feb 13, 2025 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 4.75 | 5.00 | -0.25 |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 5.25 | 5.00 | +0.25 |
| Sep 12, 2024 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 0.00 |
| Aug 8, 2024 | 5.50 | 5.75 | -0.25 |
| Jul 11, 2024 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 0.00 |
| Jun 13, 2024 | 5.75 | 5.50 | +0.25 |
| May 9, 2024 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 0.00 |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 6.00 | 6.25 | -0.25 |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 6.00 | 6.25 | -0.25 |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 6.25 | 6.00 | +0.25 |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 0.00 |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 0.00 |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 0.00 |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 0.00 |
The latest reading is within its usual range, less than one standard deviation from the mean.
