The Year-over-Year Inflation Rate measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of goods and services compared to the same month in the previous year. It is the primary gauge of purchasing power and is used by central banks to determine monetary policy and interest rate adjustments. High inflation often leads to tighter monetary policy, while low inflation may prompt stimulus measures.
It is calculated by comparing the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the CPI value from one year ago. The formula used is ((Current CPI - Past CPI) / Past CPI) x 100.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | 3.20 | 2.70 | +0.50 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | 2.80 | 3.80 | -1.00 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | 3.80 | 3.40 | +0.40 |
| May 11, 2026 | 3.20 | 4.10 | -0.90 |
| Apr 13, 2026 | 3.60 | — | — |
| Apr 13, 2026 | 3.60 | 1.60 | +2.00 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2.00 | 1.30 | +0.70 |
| Feb 19, 2026 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1.60 | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 0.00 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1.50 | 1.30 | +0.20 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1.10 | 1.50 | -0.40 |
| Sep 18, 2025 | 0.50 | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2025 | 0.50 | — | — |
| Aug 18, 2025 | 0.80 | 0.40 | +0.40 |
| Jul 15, 2025 | 0.50 | 0.80 | -0.30 |
| Jun 19, 2025 | 0.60 | — | — |
| May 15, 2025 | 0.90 | 0.70 | +0.20 |
| Apr 21, 2025 | 0.60 | 1.30 | -0.70 |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 1.00 | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| Feb 20, 2025 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 0.70 | 0.80 | -0.10 |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 0.50 | — | — |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 0.80 | 0.60 | +0.20 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 0.40 | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 1.10 | 1.40 | -0.30 |
| Aug 20, 2024 | 1.50 | 0.60 | +0.90 |
| Jul 15, 2024 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.00 |
| Jun 24, 2024 | 0.94 | 0.50 | +0.44 |
| May 15, 2024 | 0.40 | 0.30 | +0.10 |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 0.20 | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| Feb 19, 2024 | -0.10 | 0.60 | -0.70 |
| Jan 22, 2024 | 0.50 | 0.80 | -0.30 |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 0.30 | 1.50 | -1.20 |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1.30 | 0.70 | +0.60 |
