The Year-over-Year Inflation Rate measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of goods and services compared to the same month in the previous year. It is the primary gauge of purchasing power and is used by central banks to determine monetary policy and interest rate adjustments. High inflation often leads to tighter monetary policy, while low inflation may prompt stimulus measures.
It is calculated by comparing the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the CPI value from one year ago. The formula used is ((Current CPI - Past CPI) / Past CPI) x 100.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | — | 3.00 | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | 3.30 | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.10 | +0.20 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.10 | +0.10 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.10 | +0.10 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 3.10 | 2.90 | +0.20 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 3.10 | 2.90 | +0.20 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 |
| Jun 9, 2026 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Jun 9, 2026 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| May 20, 2026 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 0.00 |
| May 20, 2026 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 0.00 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 2.80 | — | — |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 2.80 | 2.60 | +0.20 |
| Apr 9, 2026 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 0.00 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2.40 | 2.50 | -0.10 |
| Feb 12, 2026 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2.40 | 2.90 | -0.50 |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 0.00 |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2.90 | 3.00 | -0.10 |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 0.00 |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3.10 | 3.20 | -0.10 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | 3.30 | 2.80 | +0.50 |
| Sep 2, 2025 | 2.80 | 2.90 | -0.10 |
| Aug 12, 2025 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 |
| Jul 8, 2025 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 0.00 |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 3.10 | 3.30 | -0.20 |
| Jun 12, 2025 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 0.00 |
| Jun 3, 2025 | 3.30 | 4.30 | -1.00 |
| May 13, 2025 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 |
| May 2, 2025 | 4.10 | 3.60 | +0.50 |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 0.00 |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3.70 | 4.20 | -0.50 |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 0.00 |
| Feb 13, 2025 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 0.00 |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 3.30 | 3.50 | -0.20 |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 4.00 | 4.30 | -0.30 |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3.50 | 3.60 | -0.10 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 3.60 | 3.20 | +0.40 |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 3.50 | 3.10 | +0.40 |
| Sep 10, 2024 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 0.00 |
| Aug 30, 2024 | 3.60 | 3.50 | +0.10 |
| Aug 6, 2024 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 0.00 |
| Jul 31, 2024 | 3.70 | 2.80 | +0.90 |
| Jul 9, 2024 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 0.00 |
