The Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. It combines several individual economic indicators that typically lead changes in the overall economy, such as building permits, stock prices, and consumer expectations. A rising index suggests economic expansion in the coming months, while a declining trend can signal a potential recession.
The index is calculated as a weighted average of 10 components, including manufacturing hours, jobless claims, new orders, and interest rate spreads, adjusted for volatility.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | 0.02 | 0.40 | -0.38 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -0.50 | 0.30 | -0.80 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 1.25 | 0.10 | +1.15 |
| May 25, 2026 | 0.04 | 0.20 | -0.16 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | -0.30 | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Mar 20, 2026 | -0.70 | 0.10 | -0.80 |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 0.50 | 1.20 | -0.70 |
| Jan 23, 2026 | -2.40 | 0.50 | -2.90 |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2.60 | 0.20 | +2.40 |
| Nov 25, 2025 | -0.50 | 0.30 | -0.80 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | -0.80 | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| Sep 24, 2025 | 0.50 | 0.30 | +0.20 |
| Aug 25, 2025 | -0.50 | 0.70 | -1.20 |
| Jul 25, 2025 | 0.10 | 0.00 | +0.10 |
| Jun 24, 2025 | 0.80 | 0.20 | +0.60 |
| May 23, 2025 | -0.04 | -0.70 | +0.66 |
| Apr 25, 2025 | -0.20 | 0.90 | -1.10 |
| Mar 25, 2025 | -1.20 | 0.30 | -1.50 |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 0.80 | 0.50 | +0.30 |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 1.10 | 0.40 | +0.70 |
| Dec 20, 2024 | -0.40 | 1.20 | -1.60 |
| Nov 25, 2024 | -2.60 | 0.20 | -2.80 |
| Oct 25, 2024 | -0.70 | -0.10 | -0.60 |
| Sep 24, 2024 | 1.10 | 0.30 | +0.80 |
| Aug 23, 2024 | -0.70 | 0.10 | -0.80 |
| Jul 25, 2024 | 0.80 | 0.30 | +0.50 |
| Jun 25, 2024 | 0.80 | 0.20 | +0.60 |
| May 24, 2024 | -0.50 | 0.20 | -0.70 |
| Apr 25, 2024 | 0.40 | 0.90 | -0.50 |
| Mar 25, 2024 | 1.60 | 0.20 | +1.40 |
| Feb 23, 2024 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 0.50 | -0.20 | +0.70 |
| Dec 22, 2023 | -0.20 | -0.10 | -0.10 |
| Nov 24, 2023 | -0.40 | 0.30 | -0.70 |
| Oct 25, 2023 | 0.70 | 0.40 | +0.30 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 0 ↓ |
| May 25, 2026 | -0.10 | 0.04 | +0.14 ↑ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | -0.60 | -0.70 | -0.10 ↓ |
