The Coincident Index measures current economic activity by aggregating several variables that change simultaneously with the overall economy, such as industrial production, real income, and employment. Unlike leading indicators that predict future trends, this index confirms the current state of the business cycle. It is widely used by government agencies to determine the official timing of economic expansions and recessions.
The index is a composite of multiple data series, each weighted according to its historical ability to reflect the business cycle, and is reported as a month-over-month percentage change.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | 0.30 | 0.20 | +0.10 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -0.30 | 0.50 | -0.80 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 0.90 | 0.20 | +0.70 |
| May 25, 2026 | 0.80 | 0.30 | +0.50 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | -1.40 | 0.70 | -2.10 |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 0.90 | 0.20 | +0.70 |
| Feb 25, 2026 | -0.02 | 0.20 | -0.22 |
| Jan 23, 2026 | -0.50 | 0.30 | -0.80 |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 0.60 | 0.30 | +0.30 |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | -0.60 | 0.30 | -0.90 |
| Sep 24, 2025 | 1.20 | 0.20 | +1.00 |
| Aug 25, 2025 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Jul 25, 2025 | -0.10 | 0.10 | -0.20 |
| Jun 24, 2025 | -0.10 | 0.40 | -0.50 |
| May 23, 2025 | -0.20 | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| Apr 25, 2025 | 1.90 | 1.00 | +0.90 |
| Mar 25, 2025 | -1.40 | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| Feb 25, 2025 | -0.30 | 0.20 | -0.50 |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 0.03 | 0.30 | -0.27 |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 0.60 | 0.20 | +0.40 |
| Nov 25, 2024 | -0.70 | 0.20 | -0.90 |
| Oct 25, 2024 | -0.60 | 0.30 | -0.90 |
| Sep 24, 2024 | 0.70 | 0.30 | +0.40 |
| Aug 23, 2024 | 0.20 | 0.50 | -0.30 |
| Jul 25, 2024 | 0.60 | 0.20 | +0.40 |
| Jun 25, 2024 | 0.30 | 0.40 | -0.10 |
| May 24, 2024 | 0.60 | 0.10 | +0.50 |
| Apr 25, 2024 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Mar 25, 2024 | 0.20 | -0.20 | +0.40 |
| Feb 23, 2024 | -0.50 | -0.20 | -0.30 |
| Jan 24, 2024 | -0.30 | 0.20 | -0.50 |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Oct 25, 2023 | 0.08 | 0.30 | -0.22 |
