Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | — | 7.00 | — |
| Aug 12, 2026 | 6.60 | 7.00 | -0.40 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 7.20 | 6.00 | +1.20 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 6.30 | 7.70 | -1.40 |
| May 11, 2026 | 7.50 | 5.00 | +2.50 |
| Apr 10, 2026 | 7.70 | 5.30 | +2.40 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 6.10 | 5.60 | +0.50 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | 6.90 | 6.00 | +0.90 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 6.40 | 6.20 | +0.20 |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 6.80 | 7.30 | -0.50 |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 7.00 | 5.30 | +1.70 |
| Oct 10, 2025 | 5.00 | 4.50 | +0.50 |
| Sep 12, 2025 | 5.60 | 5.00 | +0.60 |
| Aug 8, 2025 | 5.40 | 2.10 | +3.30 |
| Jul 14, 2025 | 4.90 | 4.30 | +0.60 |
| Jun 13, 2025 | 4.70 | 6.80 | -2.10 |
| May 13, 2025 | 6.60 | 4.10 | +2.50 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | 5.90 | 3.60 | +2.30 |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 8.20 | 5.60 | +2.60 |
| Feb 12, 2025 | 5.40 | 3.80 | +1.60 |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 5.80 | — | — |
| Dec 11, 2024 | 7.10 | 5.00 | +2.10 |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 5.50 | 4.20 | +1.30 |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 5.90 | 5.80 | +0.10 |
| Sep 9, 2024 | 6.40 | 7.40 | -1.00 |
| Aug 8, 2024 | 7.90 | 4.50 | +3.40 |
| Jul 11, 2024 | 8.70 | 5.00 | +3.70 |
| Jun 11, 2024 | 5.50 | 3.40 | +2.10 |
| May 9, 2024 | 7.10 | 7.90 | -0.80 |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 5.80 | 2.00 | +3.80 |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2.60 | 6.00 | -3.40 |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 5.00 | 4.50 | +0.50 |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 4.40 | 2.00 | +2.40 |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3.90 | 5.50 | -1.60 |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 5.90 | 4.00 | +1.90 |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 6.30 | 4.80 | +1.50 |
