Business Confidence is an economic indicator based on surveys of business leaders regarding their outlook on the economy and their own company's performance. It covers critical aspects such as production levels, new orders, and employment intentions for the coming months. High business confidence is a leading indicator, as it often precedes increased capital expenditure and hiring, signaling future economic expansion.
The indicator is typically based on a diffusion index derived from surveys where respondents rate the relative level of business conditions. A reading above a certain threshold (like 50 or 0) indicates optimism, while a reading below indicates pessimism.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | — | 48.60 | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | 48.10 | 47.70 | +0.40 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 48.00 | 46.80 | +1.20 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 48.00 | 48.90 | -0.90 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 47.50 | 48.10 | -0.60 |
| May 4, 2026 | 47.90 | 48.00 | -0.10 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 47.80 | 46.20 | +1.60 |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 48.10 | 48.20 | -0.10 |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 48.40 | 48.90 | -0.50 |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 48.90 | 48.80 | +0.10 |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 48.40 | 49.00 | -0.60 |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 49.10 | 49.80 | -0.70 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | 49.70 | 51.40 | -1.70 |
| Sep 1, 2025 | 49.40 | 49.50 | -0.10 |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 49.40 | 49.20 | +0.20 |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 49.30 | 49.50 | -0.20 |
| Jun 2, 2025 | 49.50 | 48.90 | +0.60 |
| May 2, 2025 | 48.50 | 49.50 | -1.00 |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 49.90 | 49.00 | +0.90 |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 50.40 | 52.00 | -1.60 |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 51.70 | 50.80 | +0.90 |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 51.20 | 52.00 | -0.80 |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 52.10 | 52.00 | +0.10 |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 52.30 | 52.20 | +0.10 |
| Oct 2, 2024 | 51.90 | 53.00 | -1.10 |
| Sep 2, 2024 | 53.20 | 52.80 | +0.40 |
| Aug 1, 2024 | 52.90 | 53.00 | -0.10 |
| Jul 1, 2024 | 53.00 | 53.40 | -0.40 |
| Jun 3, 2024 | 53.70 | 54.00 | -0.30 |
| May 2, 2024 | 54.20 | — | — |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 54.30 | 53.00 | +1.30 |
| Mar 1, 2024 | 54.30 | 54.30 | 0.00 |
| Feb 1, 2024 | 54.50 | 54.30 | +0.20 |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 54.60 | 53.60 | +1.00 |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 54.00 | 53.60 | +0.40 |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 54.00 | 53.50 | +0.50 |
| Oct 2, 2023 | 53.80 | 51.00 | +2.80 |
| Sep 1, 2023 | 53.50 | 53.90 | -0.40 |
| Aug 1, 2023 | 53.60 | 53.70 | -0.10 |
| Jul 3, 2023 | 53.30 | 50.00 | +3.30 |
| Jun 1, 2023 | 53.30 | 52.00 | +1.30 |
| May 2, 2023 | 52.60 | 52.00 | +0.60 |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 52.90 | 51.50 | +1.40 |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 52.00 | 50.00 | +2.00 |
| Feb 1, 2023 | 49.80 | 49.00 | +0.80 |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 49.30 | 49.00 | +0.30 |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 49.30 | 49.00 | +0.30 |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 49.80 | 50.00 | -0.20 |
| Oct 3, 2022 | 50.10 | 51.00 | -0.90 |
| Sep 1, 2022 | 50.90 | 51.00 | -0.10 |
| Aug 1, 2022 | 51.20 | 52.00 | -0.80 |
