The Mid-month Inflation Rate (IPCA-15) measures the change in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services during the first half of the month. It serves as a reliable preview for the official monthly inflation index (IPCA), providing early insights into consumer price trends. It is one of the most closely watched indicators by the Central Bank of Brazil for setting interest rates.
Calculated by IBGE using price surveys conducted from the 16th of the previous month to the 15th of the current month across several metropolitan areas.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | 0.10 | 0.20 | -0.10 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 0.07 | 0.10 | -0.03 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | -0.11 | 0.10 | -0.21 |
| May 22, 2026 | -0.16 | -0.15 | -0.01 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | 0.11 | 0.08 | +0.03 |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 0.62 | 0.37 | +0.25 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | 0.25 | 0.21 | +0.04 |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 0.31 | 0.37 | -0.06 |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 0.17 | 0.31 | -0.14 |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 0.47 | 0.42 | +0.05 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 0.28 | 0.36 | -0.08 |
| Sep 24, 2025 | 0.18 | 0.19 | -0.01 |
| Aug 22, 2025 | -0.02 | 0.12 | -0.14 |
| Jul 24, 2025 | 0.15 | 0.27 | -0.12 |
| Jun 24, 2025 | 0.10 | 0.11 | -0.01 |
| May 22, 2025 | 0.09 | -0.10 | +0.19 |
| Apr 24, 2025 | 0.12 | 0.10 | +0.02 |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 0.14 | 0.22 | -0.08 |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 0.20 | 0.29 | -0.09 |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 0.42 | 0.36 | +0.06 |
| Nov 22, 2024 | 0.37 | 0.49 | -0.12 |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 0.43 | 0.40 | +0.03 |
| Sep 24, 2024 | 0.09 | 0.15 | -0.06 |
| Aug 22, 2024 | -0.03 | 0.12 | -0.15 |
| Jul 24, 2024 | 0.71 | 0.39 | +0.32 |
| Jun 24, 2024 | 0.21 | 0.14 | +0.07 |
| May 23, 2024 | -0.21 | -0.22 | +0.01 |
| Apr 24, 2024 | 0.09 | -0.03 | +0.12 |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 0.27 | 0.28 | -0.01 |
| Feb 22, 2024 | -0.10 | 0.15 | -0.25 |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 0.49 | 0.38 | +0.11 |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 0.52 | 0.40 | +0.12 |
| Nov 23, 2023 | 0.63 | 0.60 | +0.03 |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 0.24 | 0.35 | -0.11 |
| Sep 22, 2023 | 0.25 | 0.29 | -0.04 |
| Aug 24, 2023 | 0.32 | 0.28 | +0.04 |
| Jul 24, 2023 | 0.29 | 0.27 | +0.02 |
| Jun 22, 2023 | 0.02 | 0.15 | -0.13 |
| May 24, 2023 | -0.32 | -0.19 | -0.13 |
| Apr 24, 2023 | -0.16 | -0.12 | -0.04 |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 0.15 | 0.28 | -0.13 |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 0.30 | 0.38 | -0.08 |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 0.46 | 0.39 | +0.07 |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 0.39 | 0.40 | -0.01 |
| Nov 24, 2022 | 0.56 | 0.65 | -0.09 |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 0.44 | 0.53 | -0.09 |
| Sep 22, 2022 | 0.41 | 0.36 | +0.05 |
| Aug 24, 2022 | 0.42 | 0.35 | +0.07 |
| Jul 22, 2022 | 0.43 | 0.39 | +0.04 |
