The Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY measures the annual change in the prices of a basket of goods and services for the first 15 days of the month, excluding volatile items like food and energy. This indicator provides an early look at underlying inflationary trends before the full-month data is released. It is a critical metric for central banks, such as Banxico or the BCB, when determining interest rate paths.
The rate is calculated by comparing the average price level of the core basket during the first half of the current month with the average price level of the same period in the previous year. It uses a Laspeyres-type index formula.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | 3.93 | 3.90 | +0.03 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 0.00 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | 4.12 | 4.14 | -0.02 |
| May 22, 2026 | 4.22 | 4.26 | -0.04 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | 4.27 | 4.30 | -0.03 |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 4.46 | 4.48 | -0.02 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | 4.52 | 4.57 | -0.05 |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 4.47 | 4.48 | -0.01 |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 4.34 | 4.42 | -0.08 |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 4.32 | 4.33 | -0.01 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 4.24 | 4.30 | -0.06 |
| Sep 24, 2025 | 4.26 | 4.24 | +0.02 |
| Aug 22, 2025 | 4.21 | 4.27 | -0.06 |
| Jul 24, 2025 | 4.25 | 4.31 | -0.06 |
| Jun 24, 2025 | 4.20 | 4.16 | +0.04 |
| May 22, 2025 | 3.97 | 3.98 | -0.01 |
| Apr 24, 2025 | 3.90 | 3.78 | +0.12 |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3.56 | 3.57 | -0.01 |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 3.63 | 3.61 | +0.02 |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 3.72 | 3.68 | +0.04 |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3.62 | 3.56 | +0.06 |
| Nov 22, 2024 | 3.58 | 3.72 | -0.14 |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3.87 | 3.82 | +0.05 |
| Sep 24, 2024 | 3.95 | 3.97 | -0.02 |
| Aug 22, 2024 | 3.98 | 4.06 | -0.08 |
| Jul 24, 2024 | 4.02 | 4.02 | 0.00 |
| Jun 24, 2024 | 4.17 | 4.19 | -0.02 |
| May 23, 2024 | 4.31 | 4.31 | 0.00 |
| Apr 24, 2024 | 4.39 | 4.39 | 0.00 |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 4.69 | 4.62 | +0.07 |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 4.63 | 4.67 | -0.04 |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 4.78 | 4.78 | 0.00 |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 5.19 | 5.24 | -0.05 |
| Nov 23, 2023 | 5.31 | 5.33 | -0.02 |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 5.54 | 5.50 | +0.04 |
| Sep 22, 2023 | 5.78 | 5.76 | +0.02 |
| Aug 24, 2023 | 6.21 | 6.23 | -0.02 |
| Jul 24, 2023 | 6.76 | 6.73 | +0.03 |
| Jun 22, 2023 | 6.91 | 7.02 | -0.11 |
| May 24, 2023 | 7.45 | 7.49 | -0.04 |
| Apr 24, 2023 | 7.75 | 7.78 | -0.03 |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 8.15 | 8.15 | 0.00 |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 8.38 | 8.42 | -0.04 |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 8.45 | 8.34 | +0.11 |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 8.35 | 8.34 | +0.01 |
| Nov 24, 2022 | 8.66 | 8.60 | +0.06 |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 8.39 | 8.31 | +0.08 |
| Sep 22, 2022 | 8.27 | 8.25 | +0.02 |
| Aug 24, 2022 | 7.97 | 7.80 | +0.17 |
| Jul 22, 2022 | 7.56 | 7.54 | +0.02 |
