This indicator measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers during the first 15 days of the month, excluding volatile components like food and energy. It serves as a crucial early signal for the final monthly inflation figures, providing a cleaner view of underlying price trends. Central banks closely monitor this data to assess persistent inflationary pressures and determine the appropriate path for interest rates. A higher-than-expected reading is typically seen as bullish for the currency, while a lower reading is bearish.
The index is calculated by comparing the average prices of a fixed basket of goods and services during the first 15 days of the current month against the first 15 days of the previous month, excluding food and energy sectors.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | 0.08 | 0.20 | -0.12 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.00 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | 0.19 | 0.20 | -0.01 |
| May 22, 2026 | 0.13 | 0.17 | -0.04 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | 0.18 | 0.20 | -0.02 |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.00 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | 0.22 | 0.27 | -0.05 |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 0.43 | 0.44 | -0.01 |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 0.31 | 0.39 | -0.08 |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 0.04 | 0.06 | -0.02 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 0.18 | 0.19 | -0.01 |
| Sep 24, 2025 | 0.22 | 0.20 | +0.02 |
| Aug 22, 2025 | 0.09 | 0.14 | -0.05 |
| Jul 24, 2025 | 0.15 | 0.21 | -0.06 |
| Jun 24, 2025 | 0.22 | 0.18 | +0.04 |
| May 22, 2025 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.00 |
| Apr 24, 2025 | 0.34 | 0.20 | +0.14 |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.00 |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 0.27 | 0.24 | +0.03 |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 0.28 | 0.23 | +0.05 |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 0.50 | 0.43 | +0.07 |
| Nov 22, 2024 | 0.04 | 0.17 | -0.13 |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 0.23 | 0.20 | +0.03 |
| Sep 24, 2024 | 0.21 | 0.23 | -0.02 |
| Aug 22, 2024 | 0.10 | 0.19 | -0.09 |
| Jul 24, 2024 | 0.18 | 0.19 | -0.01 |
| Jun 24, 2024 | 0.17 | 0.18 | -0.01 |
| May 23, 2024 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| Apr 24, 2024 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.00 |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 0.33 | 0.26 | +0.07 |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 0.24 | 0.28 | -0.04 |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 0.46 | 0.50 | -0.04 |
| Nov 23, 2023 | 0.20 | 0.22 | -0.02 |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 0.24 | 0.20 | +0.04 |
| Sep 22, 2023 | 0.27 | 0.25 | +0.02 |
| Aug 24, 2023 | 0.19 | 0.21 | -0.02 |
| Jul 24, 2023 | 0.24 | 0.22 | +0.02 |
| Jun 22, 2023 | 0.11 | 0.22 | -0.11 |
| May 24, 2023 | 0.18 | 0.21 | -0.03 |
| Apr 24, 2023 | 0.18 | 0.22 | -0.04 |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 0.35 | 0.39 | -0.04 |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 0.44 | 0.32 | +0.12 |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 0.57 | 0.56 | +0.01 |
| Nov 24, 2022 | 0.34 | 0.30 | +0.04 |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 0.42 | 0.35 | +0.07 |
| Sep 22, 2022 | 0.44 | 0.42 | +0.02 |
| Aug 24, 2022 | 0.49 | 0.34 | +0.15 |
| Jul 22, 2022 | 0.34 | 0.31 | +0.03 |
