The Year-over-Year Economic Activity indicator measures the change in the total output of an economy compared to the same month in the previous year. This metric helps filter out seasonal noise and provides a clearer picture of long-term economic trends and structural growth. It is widely used by analysts to determine if an economy is in an expansionary or recessionary phase relative to its historical performance.
It is calculated by comparing the current month's economic activity index value to the index value of the same month from the prior year, expressed as a percentage change.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | — | 2.70 | — |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 2.80 | 1.70 | +1.10 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 0.00 |
| Jun 23, 2026 | 2.60 | 1.90 | +0.70 |
| May 22, 2026 | 1.40 | 0.50 | +0.90 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | -0.40 | 0.70 | -1.10 |
| Mar 24, 2026 | -0.30 | 1.60 | -1.90 |
| Feb 23, 2026 | 3.30 | 2.60 | +0.70 |
| Jan 23, 2026 | -0.10 | 1.00 | -1.10 |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 1.70 | 1.00 | +0.70 |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 0.70 | 0.80 | -0.10 |
| Oct 22, 2025 | -0.90 | -1.00 | +0.10 |
| Sep 23, 2025 | -1.10 | -0.70 | -0.40 |
| Aug 22, 2025 | 1.30 | 1.50 | -0.20 |
| Jul 22, 2025 | -0.20 | 0.50 | -0.70 |
| Jun 23, 2025 | -1.50 | -2.00 | +0.50 |
| May 22, 2025 | 2.50 | 3.00 | -0.50 |
| Apr 25, 2025 | -0.70 | -0.80 | +0.10 |
| Mar 24, 2025 | -0.10 | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| Feb 21, 2025 | -0.40 | 0.30 | -0.70 |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 0.50 | 0.60 | -0.10 |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 0.70 | 0.40 | +0.30 |
| Nov 22, 2024 | 0.30 | 0.50 | -0.20 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 0.40 | 0.70 | -0.30 |
| Sep 23, 2024 | 3.80 | 1.80 | +2.00 |
| Aug 22, 2024 | -0.60 | 0.90 | -1.50 |
| Jul 22, 2024 | 1.60 | 1.40 | +0.20 |
| Jun 21, 2024 | 5.40 | 3.80 | +1.60 |
| May 23, 2024 | -1.30 | 1.10 | -2.40 |
| Apr 22, 2024 | 4.40 | 1.80 | +2.60 |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 2.00 | 2.60 | -0.60 |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1.10 | 0.70 | +0.40 |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 2.30 | 3.20 | -0.90 |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 4.20 | 4.10 | +0.10 |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3.30 | 3.00 | +0.30 |
| Oct 23, 2023 | 3.70 | 3.40 | +0.30 |
| Sep 22, 2023 | 3.20 | 3.50 | -0.30 |
| Aug 29, 2023 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 |
| Jul 25, 2023 | 4.30 | 3.60 | +0.70 |
| Jun 26, 2023 | 2.50 | 2.30 | +0.20 |
| May 26, 2023 | 2.70 | 3.20 | -0.50 |
| Apr 25, 2023 | 3.80 | 3.90 | -0.10 |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 4.40 | 3.00 | +1.40 |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 2.60 | 2.80 | -0.20 |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 3.30 | 3.90 | -0.60 |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 4.40 | 4.80 | -0.40 |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 5.20 | 4.80 | +0.40 |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 5.70 | 3.30 | +2.40 |
| Sep 26, 2022 | 1.30 | 1.50 | -0.20 |
| Aug 25, 2022 | 1.60 | 2.00 | -0.40 |
| Jul 25, 2022 | 2.10 | 1.70 | +0.40 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | 2.30 | 2.60 | +0.30 ↑ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | -0.30 | -0.40 | -0.10 ↓ |
