Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 2.70 | 3.10 | -0.40 |
| Jul 21, 2026 | 1.60 | 2.50 | -0.90 |
| Jun 23, 2026 | 4.40 | 3.70 | +0.70 |
| May 21, 2026 | 2.90 | 3.10 | -0.20 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | 3.10 | 4.10 | -1.00 |
| Mar 23, 2026 | 5.00 | 3.10 | +1.90 |
| Feb 20, 2026 | 4.30 | 3.90 | +0.40 |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 4.40 | 3.00 | +1.40 |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3.40 | 3.00 | +0.40 |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 3.30 | 1.80 | +1.50 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2.40 | 2.00 | +0.40 |
| Sep 23, 2025 | 2.40 | 1.60 | +0.80 |
| Aug 21, 2025 | 2.50 | 2.90 | -0.40 |
| Jul 22, 2025 | 2.70 | 0.70 | +2.00 |
| Jun 23, 2025 | -2.00 | 1.50 | -3.50 |
| May 21, 2025 | 4.30 | 2.20 | +2.10 |
| Apr 23, 2025 | -1.10 | 0.90 | -2.00 |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2.70 | 1.10 | +1.60 |
| Feb 20, 2025 | -0.20 | -1.70 | +1.50 |
| Jan 21, 2025 | -1.90 | -1.20 | -0.70 |
| Dec 17, 2024 | -1.20 | -1.60 | +0.40 |
| Nov 21, 2024 | -1.50 | -1.20 | -0.30 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | -0.80 | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| Sep 23, 2024 | -0.60 | -0.50 | -0.10 |
| Aug 20, 2024 | -3.90 | -1.70 | -2.20 |
| Jul 22, 2024 | 0.30 | 3.50 | -3.20 |
| Jun 20, 2024 | 3.20 | 1.50 | +1.70 |
| May 20, 2024 | -1.70 | -0.20 | -1.50 |
| Apr 19, 2024 | 3.00 | -1.00 | +4.00 |
| Mar 21, 2024 | -0.80 | 1.20 | -2.00 |
| Feb 21, 2024 | -0.20 | 2.50 | -2.70 |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 2.70 | 3.20 | -0.50 |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 3.40 | 2.00 | +1.40 |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2.30 | 3.60 | -1.30 |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 3.20 | 4.40 | -1.20 |
| Sep 21, 2023 | 5.10 | 4.90 | +0.20 |
| Aug 18, 2023 | 5.90 | 2.90 | +3.00 |
| Jul 20, 2023 | 2.60 | 3.50 | -0.90 |
| Jun 20, 2023 | 3.80 | 2.50 | +1.30 |
| May 19, 2023 | 2.50 | 2.90 | -0.40 |
| Apr 20, 2023 | 3.40 | 4.00 | -0.60 |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 5.30 | 3.00 | +2.30 |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2.50 | 3.20 | -0.70 |
| Jan 20, 2023 | 2.40 | 2.60 | -0.20 |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3.80 | 3.30 | +0.50 |
| Nov 22, 2022 | 3.30 | 4.20 | -0.90 |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 4.70 | 6.10 | -1.40 |
| Sep 21, 2022 | 5.00 | 4.70 | +0.30 |
| Aug 19, 2022 | 4.00 | 5.00 | -1.00 |
| Jul 21, 2022 | 5.20 | 4.60 | +0.60 |
