The Year-over-Year Inflation Rate measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of goods and services compared to the same month in the previous year. It is the primary gauge of purchasing power and is used by central banks to determine monetary policy and interest rate adjustments. High inflation often leads to tighter monetary policy, while low inflation may prompt stimulus measures.
It is calculated by comparing the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the CPI value from one year ago. The formula used is ((Current CPI - Past CPI) / Past CPI) x 100.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | 2.57 | — | — |
| Apr 21, 2026 | 2.06 | — | — |
| Aug 21, 2025 | 2.39 | 2.30 | +0.09 |
| Jul 20, 2025 | 2.32 | 2.50 | -0.18 |
| Jun 19, 2025 | 2.25 | 2.40 | -0.15 |
| May 20, 2025 | 2.25 | 2.50 | -0.25 |
| Apr 20, 2025 | 2.41 | 2.90 | -0.49 |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2.49 | 2.60 | -0.11 |
| Feb 20, 2025 | 2.50 | 2.60 | -0.10 |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2.36 | 2.50 | -0.14 |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2.44 | 2.60 | -0.16 |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 2.75 | 2.70 | +0.05 |
| Oct 2, 2024 | 2.92 | 3.10 | -0.18 |
| Aug 21, 2024 | 3.00 | — | — |
| Jul 22, 2024 | 2.84 | 3.10 | -0.26 |
| Jun 21, 2024 | 3.17 | 3.00 | +0.17 |
| May 19, 2024 | 3.17 | 3.10 | +0.07 |
| Apr 22, 2024 | 3.02 | 3.10 | -0.08 |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 3.36 | 3.30 | +0.06 |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3.28 | 3.20 | +0.08 |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3.37 | 3.90 | -0.53 |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3.80 | 3.60 | +0.20 |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3.73 | 3.60 | +0.13 |
