The Year-over-Year Inflation Rate measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of goods and services compared to the same month in the previous year. It is the primary gauge of purchasing power and is used by central banks to determine monetary policy and interest rate adjustments. High inflation often leads to tighter monetary policy, while low inflation may prompt stimulus measures.
It is calculated by comparing the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the CPI value from one year ago. The formula used is ((Current CPI - Past CPI) / Past CPI) x 100.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | — | 5.80 | — |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 6.60 | — | — |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 6.60 | 6.60 | 0.00 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 6.50 | — | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 6.50 | 6.30 | +0.20 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 6.40 | — | — |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 6.40 | 7.40 | -1.00 |
| May 29, 2026 | 6.70 | 6.50 | +0.20 |
| May 29, 2026 | 6.70 | — | — |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 5.60 | — | — |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 5.60 | 4.90 | +0.70 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | 4.40 | 4.70 | -0.30 |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 0.00 |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 4.40 | 4.60 | -0.20 |
| Dec 30, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 4.60 | 4.70 | -0.10 |
| Sep 30, 2025 | 4.60 | 4.70 | -0.10 |
| Aug 29, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.20 | +0.30 |
| Jul 31, 2025 | 4.10 | 3.90 | +0.20 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | 3.80 | 4.20 | -0.40 |
| May 30, 2025 | 3.80 | 4.30 | -0.50 |
| Apr 30, 2025 | 4.10 | 3.50 | +0.60 |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3.60 | 3.80 | -0.20 |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 3.30 | 3.20 | +0.10 |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3.00 | 2.90 | +0.10 |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2.80 | 2.30 | +0.50 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2.70 | 3.20 | -0.50 |
| Oct 2, 2024 | 3.60 | 4.50 | -0.90 |
| Aug 30, 2024 | 4.40 | 4.20 | +0.20 |
| Jul 31, 2024 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 0.00 |
| Jun 29, 2024 | 4.60 | 5.20 | -0.60 |
| May 31, 2024 | 5.10 | 4.80 | +0.30 |
| Apr 30, 2024 | 5.00 | 5.90 | -0.90 |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 6.30 | 6.90 | -0.60 |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 6.90 | 6.90 | 0.00 |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 6.60 | 6.90 | -0.30 |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 6.80 | 6.80 | 0.00 |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 6.90 | 6.55 | +0.35 |
