The Year-over-Year Inflation Rate measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of goods and services compared to the same month in the previous year. It is the primary gauge of purchasing power and is used by central banks to determine monetary policy and interest rate adjustments. High inflation often leads to tighter monetary policy, while low inflation may prompt stimulus measures.
It is calculated by comparing the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the CPI value from one year ago. The formula used is ((Current CPI - Past CPI) / Past CPI) x 100.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | — | 4.70 | — |
| Aug 12, 2026 | 4.45 | 4.50 | -0.05 |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 4.38 | 4.30 | +0.08 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 3.93 | 4.00 | -0.07 |
| May 12, 2026 | 3.48 | 3.80 | -0.32 |
| Apr 13, 2026 | 3.40 | 3.48 | -0.08 |
| Apr 13, 2026 | 3.40 | 3.48 | -0.08 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3.21 | 3.10 | +0.11 |
| Feb 12, 2026 | 2.75 | 2.40 | +0.35 |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1.33 | 1.40 | -0.07 |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 0.71 | 0.70 | +0.01 |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 0.25 | 0.48 | -0.23 |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1.54 | 1.70 | -0.16 |
| Sep 12, 2025 | 2.07 | 2.10 | -0.03 |
| Aug 12, 2025 | 1.55 | 1.76 | -0.21 |
| Jul 14, 2025 | 2.10 | 2.50 | -0.40 |
| Jun 12, 2025 | 2.82 | 3.00 | -0.18 |
| May 13, 2025 | 3.16 | 3.27 | -0.11 |
| Apr 15, 2025 | 3.34 | 3.60 | -0.26 |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3.61 | 4.00 | -0.39 |
| Feb 12, 2025 | 4.31 | 4.60 | -0.29 |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 5.22 | 5.30 | -0.08 |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 5.48 | 5.53 | -0.05 |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 6.21 | 5.81 | +0.40 |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 5.49 | 5.00 | +0.49 |
| Sep 12, 2024 | 3.65 | 3.55 | +0.10 |
| Aug 12, 2024 | 3.54 | 3.65 | -0.11 |
| Jul 12, 2024 | 5.08 | 4.80 | +0.28 |
| Jun 12, 2024 | 4.75 | 4.90 | -0.15 |
| May 13, 2024 | 4.83 | 4.80 | +0.03 |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 4.85 | 4.91 | -0.06 |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 5.09 | 5.02 | +0.07 |
| Feb 12, 2024 | 5.10 | 5.09 | +0.01 |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 5.69 | 5.87 | -0.18 |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 5.55 | 5.70 | -0.15 |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 4.87 | 4.80 | +0.07 |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 5.02 | 5.50 | -0.48 |
| Sep 12, 2023 | 6.83 | 7.00 | -0.17 |
| Aug 14, 2023 | 7.44 | 6.40 | +1.04 |
| Jul 12, 2023 | 4.81 | 4.58 | +0.23 |
| Jun 12, 2023 | 4.25 | 4.42 | -0.17 |
| May 12, 2023 | 4.70 | 4.80 | -0.10 |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 5.66 | 5.80 | -0.14 |
| Mar 13, 2023 | 6.44 | 6.35 | +0.09 |
| Feb 13, 2023 | 6.52 | 5.90 | +0.62 |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 5.72 | 5.90 | -0.18 |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 5.88 | 6.40 | -0.52 |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 6.77 | 6.73 | +0.04 |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 7.41 | 7.30 | +0.11 |
| Sep 12, 2022 | 7.00 | 6.90 | +0.10 |
| Aug 12, 2022 | 6.71 | 6.78 | -0.07 |
