Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | -3.00 | 1.80 | -4.80 |
| Jul 9, 2026 | -3.90 | 2.00 | -5.90 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | -3.70 | 3.60 | -7.30 |
| May 12, 2026 | 3.40 | 6.80 | -3.40 |
| Apr 13, 2026 | 6.50 | 5.90 | +0.60 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 5.70 | 4.00 | +1.70 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | 3.50 | 5.50 | -2.00 |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 6.30 | 4.00 | +2.30 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 4.30 | 4.00 | +0.30 |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3.70 | 3.20 | +0.50 |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.90 | -0.40 |
| Sep 11, 2025 | 4.70 | 1.50 | +3.20 |
| Aug 11, 2025 | 1.30 | 1.70 | -0.40 |
| Jul 9, 2025 | 1.90 | 0.30 | +1.60 |
| Jun 13, 2025 | -0.30 | 2.10 | -2.40 |
| May 14, 2025 | 5.50 | 3.30 | +2.20 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | 2.00 | 1.00 | +1.00 |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 0.50 | 0.40 | +0.10 |
| Feb 12, 2025 | 1.80 | 3.70 | -1.90 |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 0.90 | — | — |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1.50 | 4.50 | -3.00 |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 4.80 | 2.50 | +2.30 |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 5.80 | 3.20 | +2.60 |
| Sep 10, 2024 | 4.50 | 3.00 | +1.50 |
| Aug 9, 2024 | 2.70 | -1.70 | +4.40 |
| Jul 9, 2024 | 2.10 | -0.50 | +2.60 |
| Jun 11, 2024 | -2.70 | 11.00 | -13.70 |
| May 14, 2024 | 9.30 | 2.10 | +7.20 |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 6.40 | 1.20 | +5.20 |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1.10 | 0.80 | +0.30 |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 0.20 | 2.60 | -2.40 |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 2.10 | 3.50 | -1.40 |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 2.40 | 1.90 | +0.50 |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1.50 | 2.90 | -1.40 |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 1.10 | 1.30 | -0.20 |
| Sep 11, 2023 | 1.60 | — | — |
| Aug 9, 2023 | 7.90 | 3.10 | +4.80 |
| Jul 14, 2023 | -4.50 | 3.70 | -8.20 |
| Jun 13, 2023 | 1.50 | 5.00 | -3.50 |
| May 10, 2023 | 4.90 | 1.40 | +3.50 |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 0.60 | -0.80 | +1.40 |
| Mar 9, 2023 | -0.60 | — | — |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 0.70 | 3.00 | -2.30 |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 1.30 | — | — |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3.70 | 4.40 | -0.70 |
| Nov 9, 2022 | 4.60 | 4.10 | +0.50 |
| Oct 11, 2022 | 4.90 | 8.00 | -3.10 |
| Sep 9, 2022 | 6.20 | 5.00 | +1.20 |
| Aug 9, 2022 | 4.10 | 1.10 | +3.00 |
| Jul 11, 2022 | 2.90 | 7.00 | -4.10 |
