Goods Trade Balance Non-EU

The Goods Trade Balance Non-EU is the UK trade in goods balance with non-EU countries, also called rest of the world. It covers all goods exported from and imported to the UK with every country outside the European Union, measured for the whole UK economic territory. It is built from administrative records, mainly HMRC customs data covering over 90% of goods value, not from a business survey.

It excludes services, EU trade and precious metals, and feeds the Balance of Payments and National Accounts as a growth input. Territory follows Balance of Payments rules, with the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man treated as outside UK territory. The only boundary is zero, with exports above imports as surplus and imports above exports as deficit.

The ONS publishes the balance monthly, around one month after the end of the reference calendar month, on pre-announced dates. It covers goods moved during the calendar reference month, as declared through customs and the Intrastat survey for Northern Ireland movements. It appears inside the full UK trade bulletin with commodity, services and revisions tables, while HMRC releases separate Overseas Trade Statistics on the same day.

Revisions follow the National Accounts Revisions Policy, with goods revisions smaller than services revisions. The publisher gives no buy or sell guidance and frames the balance in deficit and surplus language only.

Commodity groups drive each leg, where leg means exports or imports.

• Machinery and transport equipment: cars, aircraft and mechanical machinery on both exports and imports.
• Chemicals: medicinal, pharmaceutical, organic and inorganic chemicals, notably exports to the United States.
• Fuels: oil and other fuels, mainly on the import side, with resale oil that never enters the UK removed.
• Material manufactures: processed materials including silver, platinum and palladium bullion.
• Miscellaneous manufactures: small moves spread across many consumer and industrial goods.
• Erratics: ships, aircraft, precious stones, silver and non-monetary gold, the most volatile group.

For example, non-EU goods exports reached 16.5 billion, up 0.9 or 5.7%, on chemicals to the United States plus miscellaneous manufactures. Imports reached 22.7 billion, up 1.2 or 5.6%, mainly on machinery and transport equipment plus material manufactures. So the balance was 16.5 minus 22.7, a 6.2 billion deficit that widened by 0.3 billion although both legs rose. All figures exclude precious metals, use current prices and are seasonally adjusted.

1. HMRC goods data: Start from customs declarations of physical goods movement, called International Merchandise Trade Statistics, plus Bank of England precious metals data.
2. Balance of Payments adjustments: Convert to change of ownership, so only goods that change owner count, adding missing deals and removing processing and freight. Merchanting is removed, territory is fixed and low value trade of 873 or less is split.
3. Seasonal adjustment: Remove regular seasonal swings with X13-ARIMA-SEATS software, such as holiday effects and seasonal demand patterns.
4. Formula and example: Subtract imports from exports, both seasonally adjusted excluding precious metals, so 16.0 minus 22.0 gives a 6.0 billion deficit. If exports rise 1.0 but imports rise 1.5, the deficit still widens by 0.5.