CBI Distributive Trades

The CBI Distributive Trades Survey is the Confederation of British Industry monthly poll of distribution trade. It covers retail, wholesale and motor trade firms across the United Kingdom. It is a private sentiment poll, not official retail sales statistics. Arabic media call it CBI sales index and describe it as retail trade survey.

The sample holds 177 respondents with 70 retailers and 91 wholesalers. The headline is the retail sales volume balance against the year earlier period. A reading above 0 means growth and below 0 means contraction.

Fieldwork spans about 3 weeks ending near the middle of the reference period. Results come in the closing week of that period at 11:00 London time under embargo. The survey runs 12 times in each cycle with one year end round released earlier.

Each round pairs a press summary with a full report of shares and balances. Tables show 13 rounds of history with charts against long run means and sector splits. 4 rounds in each cycle add business sentiment and jobs plus investment plans and selling prices. Each round stands final with no revision record and expectations appear as expectations, not revised history.

Retail answers drive the headline while orders and seasonal views plus stocks and online sales add context.

• Sales volumes against year earlier: headline retail direction reported and expected.
• Orders on suppliers: demand pipeline reported and expected.
• Sales for time of year: seasonal verdict answered Good, Average or Poor.

• Stocks against expected demand: inventory read answered High, Adequate or Low.
• Internet sales: retail only online volumes reported and expected plus share selling online.
• Quarterly outlook: sentiment and jobs plus investment plans and selling prices in quarterly rounds.

In one quarterly round retail sales reached 37% from -4% with 31% expected. Sentiment stood at -22% with investment plans at -31% while selling prices hit 87% and jobs grew 13%. Internet sales fell -7% from -37% even as total retail surged, so strength can coexist with price pressure and weak investment. The split shows the balance tracks sentiment, not sales growth, so read it with orders and stocks.

1. Directional answers: each firm answers Up, Same or Down for sales and orders against year earlier. Time of year sales use Good, Average or Poor, while stocks use High, Adequate or Low.

1. Balance: subtract share reporting Down from share reporting Up, so balance equals U minus D in points from -100 to 100. For example, 31 Up, 35 Same and 33 Down gives 31 minus 33 = -2. Same answers score 0 and CBI weights responses without publishing weights.

1. 3 month moving average: add the 3 balances of a window and divide by 3 to smooth noise, then round to a whole number. For example, 8, -8 and -2 give (8 minus 8 minus 2) divided by 3, about -0.67, published as -1.

1. Expectations: expected balances ask the same questions for the forward period and appear as expectations, not revised history. Quarterly questions use 3 month and 12 month horizons.

1. Year ago comparison: no seasonal adjustment is applied. Comparisons with year earlier and the time of year question handle seasonality.