Manufacturing Production MoM

It is the monthly manufacturing series inside the ONS Index of Production, measuring change from the prior period in real terms after seasonal adjustment. Manufacturing is the largest of 4 production parts, and the release carries National Statistics status from the Office for National Statistics. It covers factory activity across the country on a value added basis, meaning output minus inputs with price effects removed. It spans 13 subgroups and measures real output volumes, not sales values or business sentiment.

Businesses report turnover excluding tax for a set reference period through a secure online collection platform, and accounting periods are adjusted to that period. The bulletin appears about 6 weeks after the period ends, alongside GDP and the Index of Services for the same period.

Each release adds a new period and keeps 2 earlier periods open for revision for late returns, updated deflators and seasonal factors. Revisions usually run from 0.0 to 0.1 points. A positive reading means output expanded and a negative one means it shrank, and one period is volatile so a 3 period average helps.

Moves come from 13 manufacturing subgroups plus cross-cutting industrial groupings by end use. Indices combine with value added weights that update on a regular cycle.

• Food products, beverages and tobacco, textiles and apparel: covers food, drink, clothing and leather chains.
• Wood, paper, chemicals and pharmaceuticals: covers timber, print, chemicals and high-value drugs that can lead a full period.
• Rubber, plastics and metals: covers plastics, glass, cement-type goods and basic metals with direct steel data.
• Electronics, electrical equipment and machinery: covers computers, optical and electrical kit plus industrial machines.
• Transport equipment: covers vehicles, aircraft and ships, a large and volatile contributor.
• Coke, refined petroleum and other manufacturing: covers refined fuel on direct data plus varied making, repair and fitting.

Manufacturing is one of 4 production parts, not the whole. It tracks real value added volumes, not company views, so longer averages beat one period.

1. Collect: the monthly business survey collects turnover excluding tax with export share. It covers about 6000 production firms in a total sample near 30000. Tax data add about 76390 firms across 64 industries, with direct energy, steel and water volumes.
2. Validate and impute: responses are checked and extreme values are treated. Missing replies are filled from prior returns or built by hand for large cases.
3. Weight: replies are scaled by design and calibration weights to estimate full business turnover.
4. Deflate: each product turnover is divided by a price index weighted by export share. The index blends home factory prices and export prices.
5. Index: volume is set against base-year average output multiplied by 100.
6. Aggregate: indices combine with value added weights that update on a cycle, valuing each period at prior-period prices, then linking.
7. Seasonally adjust: each series is adjusted with X-13-ARIMA-SEATS software to remove period length and holiday effects. Growth uses the adjusted index.
8. Grow: growth comes from the adjusted index over the prior period minus 1 times 100.