Manufacturing PMI

The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI tracks monthly change across UK factories. S&P Global compiles it from questionnaires sent to purchasing managers who buy factory inputs. The panel covers around 650 firms and mirrors the economy by sector and size using output share. Its headline blends 5 gauges linked to orders, output, jobs, delivery times and input stocks.

A reading above 50 marks broad improvement versus the prior month, while below 50 marks broad weakening. It covers factories only and tracks direction, not official volumes. It differs from the separate US ISM factory survey and from official production data.

Responses are collected in the second half of each reference month and show change versus the prior month. Each cycle brings a flash estimate built from around 80% to 90% of replies, then a final based on all replies. The flash appears near the end of the reference month under embargo until morning UK time. The final follows on the first working day of the next month with the headline, sub indices, sector splits, price lists and commentary.

Survey answers are never revised, though seasonal factors can change. The flash uses most replies and the final uses all replies, so the final supersedes the flash.

The headline blends 5 components that track demand, production, jobs and supply chains.

• New Orders, 30%: captures monthly change in incoming new business, split into domestic and export demand.
• Output, 25%: captures monthly change in production volumes.
• Employment, 20%: captures monthly change in staffing levels.
• Suppliers' Delivery Times, 15%: captures monthly change in average vendor lead times, inverted so longer delays score higher.
• Stocks of Purchases, 10%: captures monthly change in input stock holdings.

In one past downturn the headline fell to 32.6, revised from a 32.9 flash reading and down from 47.8, its weakest result on record. Output, order books and employment fell at striking rates as closures and weak global demand hit factories. Only medical and food producers grew, while supplier delays lengthened by a record amid freight and border disruption. Because delays are inverted, that lengthening supported the headline, so 32.6 understated the demand collapse.

1. Diffusion index: for each question, add the share answering higher to half the share answering unchanged. Scores run 0 to 100 with above 50 marking growth and below 50 marking decline.
2. Seasonal adjustment: adjust each index for normal seasonal patterns.
3. Inversion: flip the delivery times index so longer delays score higher, matching the direction of the rest.
4. Weighted average: multiply each gauge by its weight and add. Weights are 30% for orders, 25% for output, 20% for jobs, 15% for delays and 10% for stocks. For example, gauges of 60.0, 57.5, 52.5, 45.0 already inverted and 55.0 give 55.1.