Industrial Production YoY

Industrial Production YoY is the % change versus the same month 1 year earlier. The Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK statistics agency, builds it from SIC 2007 sections B to E. Coverage spans mining, manufacturing, energy and water plus waste across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, excluding Isle of Man, Channel Islands and Falkland Islands.

It tracks inflation-adjusted volume, not cash sales, as a proxy for gross value added (GVA), or output minus inputs. It excludes services, construction, farming, forestry and fishing, with no official expansion threshold.

Firms report turnover, excluding Value Added Tax (VAT) for each calendar month, with accounting-period returns adjusted to that month. The bulletin appears about 6 weeks after month end at 7am UK time, with the monthly GDP estimate and Index of Services.

Dates are pre-announced 12 months ahead. Releases can revise the prior 13 months as late responses arrive and seasonal factors are re-estimated. Monthly moves are volatile, so the publisher urges 3-month and annual views, with no target level or buy and sell rule.

Revisions follow the National Accounts Revisions Policy, usually by 0.0 to 0.1 points. It is benchmarked to the quarterly index. Annual GDP balancing can also revise past data.

Movements reflect 4 sectors led by manufacturing, with shares swinging monthly.

• Manufacturing, 72.2%: covers 13 subsectors from food to transport equipment, with pharmaceuticals often leading monthly moves.
• Electricity and gas supply, 11.1%: captures power and gas output from direct volumes, with no price adjustment.
• Water and waste management, 9.0%: covers water, sewerage, waste and remediation.
• Mining and quarrying, 7.7%: covers oil and gas extraction, coal, other mining and support.

In the December 2023 release, published February 15, 2024, monthly output rose 0.6% after a 0.5% rise in November. In manufacturing, 9 of 13 subsectors rose, led by transport equipment at 2.3% and pharmaceuticals at 3.0%. Manufacturing at 0.8% and energy at 1.1% offset mining at -1.8% and water at -0.4%.

Quarter 4 fell 1.0% on Quarter 3, and 2023 fell 0.3% after a 3.4% fall in 2022. YoY total rose 0.6% as manufacturing rose 2.3% against mining at -8.8%, energy at -3.6% and water at -3.3%.

1. Collect: Each firm reports nominal turnover plus export share for the reference month. Energy volumes come from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, and steel volumes from the International Steel Statistics Bureau.
2. Fill gaps: Missing replies are imputed from the prior reply times responder growth in the same group. For example, GBP 2.00m times growth of 1.03 gives GBP 2.06m.
3. Weight to population: Sample turnover is scaled to the full business population with register-based weights. Value Added Tax (VAT) data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) cover smaller firms.
4. Strip out price change: Turnover is deflated using home and export prices weighted by export share. Home prices are Producer Price Indexes (PPI) and export prices are Export Price Indexes (EPI). For example, GBP 120m with 25% exports, home 106.0 and export 102.0 gives 105.0, so real turnover is about GBP 114.3m.
5. Aggregate and chain-link: Industries are combined with gross value added weights into an annually chained Laspeyres index linked on the October to December average. The series is scaled so a reference year equals 100 (2019 = 100 in the December 2023 vintage), changing scale only and never growth rates.
6. Seasonally adjust: Each industry is seasonally adjusted using X-13-ARIMA-SEATS software, then summed to totals.
7. Compute YoY %: YoY equals the index divided by its value 12 months earlier minus 1, times 100, on seasonally adjusted total output. For example, 94.7 divided by 94.1 minus 1 times 100 is about 0.6%.