Industrial Production MoM

Industrial Production MoM is the monthly percent change in the United Kingdom Index of Production, known as IoP. It is published by the Office for National Statistics, the national statistics agency, from production survey and administrative volume sources. It covers mining, manufacturing, energy and water in Sections B to E for businesses with primary output in the United Kingdom. Coverage includes England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, excluding outlying islands.

It proxies gross value added for production only, around 13.6% of output, in chained volume terms with seasonal adjustment. It excludes services, construction and whole economy output, and it excludes current price sales and sentiment thresholds. It uses a base equal to 100, where 100 marks the base level only, not an expansion line.

Estimates draw on the Monthly Business Survey for Production and Services from around 6000 production businesses, plus energy, steel and tax sources. Around 76% of estimates use monthly turnover, while the rest uses direct volume data and tax turnover for smaller firms. Calendars list the event as Industrial Production m/m, with source as the Office for National Statistics.

Businesses report turnover excluding sales tax plus export share for the reference month, with differing accounting periods adjusted to that month. Missing replies are imputed from similar firms, and employment detail is collected only in quarter months. Releases arrive around 6 weeks after month end at 7am with the monthly output estimate, on dates announced 12 months ahead. Each release adds output, services and production datasets, plus response documentation and source catalogues.

Regular calendar effects are removed by seasonal adjustment, while one off holidays receive no special adjustment. Figures stay open for 13 months, with typical revisions from 0.0 to 0.1 points. Markets read percent changes for a month on the prior month and a month on the same month a year earlier. They read 3 months on prior 3 months and on the same 3 months a year earlier, favoring 3 month averages over single month moves.

4 sectors drive the headline, with manufacturing dominant by weight.

• Mining and quarrying, weight 77.3: Covers coal, oil and gas extraction plus other mining, largely from direct volume data.
• Manufacturing, weight 721.6: Largest part, spanning 13 subsectors such as food, metals, machinery and transport equipment, mostly from surveyed turnover.
• Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning, weight 110.9: Captures energy supply output, largely from direct volume data.
• Water supply, sewerage and waste, weight 90.2: Captures water, sewerage, waste collection and remediation activity.

Manufacturing dominates, so small factory shifts outweigh large mining or energy swings. Readers check sector splits and 3 month rates because single month moves stay volatile.

1. Collect turnover: Turnover comes from the Monthly Business Survey, while volumes come from energy, steel and tax bodies.
2. Clean and complete: Replies are checked by selective editing with outlier dampening, and missing replies are imputed from similar firms.
3. Weight to population: Sample values are scaled to the business population using design weights times calibration weights.

1. Deflate to volumes: Turnover is divided by a combined deflator mixing home producer prices and export prices by export share.
2. Index and chain-link: Yearly volumes valued at prior year prices are chain-linked into an index set to 100.
3. Seasonally adjust and benchmark: Each industry is adjusted with X-13-ARIMA-SEATS, summed indirectly and benchmarked to the quarterly average.

A flat or negative month does not mean the economy shrank, as production is only around 13.6% of output and monthly moves stay volatile. It is price adjusted output, not sales, with no threshold and with 100 only marking the base.