CBI Industrial Trends Orders

The CBI Industrial Trends Orders balance tracks demand sentiment among UK manufacturers. The CBI (Confederation of British Industry, a private business lobby) runs the Industrial Trends Survey each month. Roughly 220 to 350 firms across 17 manufacturing sub-sectors take part in a typical round.

Each firm says whether its present total order book sits above normal, normal, or below normal in volume terms, excluding seasonal swings. Firms with no order book estimate demand instead. Normal means the firm's own usual level, so the result is sentiment, not official output statistics. It is a private CBI survey, not data from the Office for National Statistics.

Fieldwork runs about 3 weeks ending near the middle of the survey month. Results appear each month between 17 and 25 and usually at 11:00 London time. Quarterly rounds carry the full questionnaire with extra questions on optimism, investment, capacity, and jobs. Each release also shows export orders, stocks of finished goods, past and expected output, price expectations, and employment.

Figures are never revised because each release is a fresh survey round. A negative balance means more firms report below normal than above. Readers judge the level against normal, the long-run average, and the direction of monthly change. The long-run average is the historical mean balance and serves as the strength benchmark.

The balance has no fixed weights because it is one survey question, read beside sibling balances.

• Export order books: same above-or-below normal question limited to export orders, splitting foreign demand from the total.
• Stocks of finished goods: whether inventories look more than adequate, adequate, or thin, giving context for order strength.
• Output volume: whether production rose, held steady, or fell over the past 3 months and what firms expect for the next 3 months.
• Average selling prices: whether firms expect to raise, hold, or cut prices over the next 3 months.
• Numbers employed: whether headcount rose or is expected to rise, linking demand to hiring.

One archived monthly round shows how the mechanics work. The total balance sat at -28 against -26 and a long-run average of -13 while export orders sank to -35 from -22.

Output fell to -16 from -9 at its fastest pace since the financial crisis. Growth came in only 6 of 17 sub-sectors and 289 makers answered. The near-steady headline hid sharp export weakness, and below normal meant weak sentiment, not a measured fall in orders.

1. Order book question: Each maker says whether its present total order book sits above normal, normal, or below normal in volume terms, excluding seasonal swings. Firms with no order book estimate demand instead.
2. Balance: Subtract the weighted share answering below normal from the share answering above normal, ignoring normal replies. For example, 13 above, 47 normal and 41 below gives -28.
3. Seasonality: No central adjustment happens because respondents allow for the season themselves, so seasonality barely moves the survey.