Gross Domestic Product YoY

Gross Domestic Product measures the total value of goods and services produced in the United Kingdom. The publisher is the Office for National Statistics within national accounts, using business surveys and administrative records. Year on year compares a month or quarter with the same period a year earlier, after removing price change. Above 0% means expansion, below 0% means contraction, 0.0% means no growth, and 2 quarters of contraction mean technical recession.

There is no target level for growth and the Office calls it the main indicator of economic performance. Real terms mean an inflation adjusted chained volume measure with weights that update every year. Results appear after seasonal adjustment and rescaling does not change growth rates.

Releases appear at 7 in the morning United Kingdom time on pre announced dates. The monthly output only estimate arrives around 40 days after the reference period. The first quarterly estimate arrives around 6 weeks after the period, and full quarterly accounts arrive around 13 weeks after.

Early estimates use partial data, about 80% at first, with fuller data raising coverage over time. Revisions are normal, typically around 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points between early and full releases, with each release stating which periods are open. Each monthly bulletin arrives with services, production and construction releases for the same period.

Monthly output adds up production across sectors, while quarterly releases add spending and earnings splits. Services usually lead the move, so read monthly change with the 3 month growth rate for trend.

• Services: the largest sector, covering shops, transport, finance, real estate, public services, health, education and hospitality.
• Production: manufacturing plus mining, energy supply and water, waste and cleanup work.
• Construction: new building such as infrastructure and private housing plus repair and maintenance.
• Agriculture, forestry and fishing: a small sector measured from models and administrative records.
• Expenditure, quarterly only: household and government spending plus investment, stock change and net trade.
• Income, quarterly only: employee pay plus company profits and net taxes, with alignment aiming at 3 billion pounds a quarter.

Output is collected in current prices from business surveys and tax records, anchored to annual benchmarks. Volumes are chained each year and shown after seasonal adjustment, with growth rounded to 1 decimal place.

• Collect output: gather turnover by industry from surveys and administrative data at current prices.
• Deflate to volume: divide output and inputs by separate price indices from consumer, producer and services producer prices and subtract.
• Hold the input to output ratio fixed past a balanced reference year until annual data arrive.
• Chain link each year in previous year prices, then join links and rescale to a reference set at 100.
• Seasonally adjust at industry level with X-13-ARIMA-SEATS, then sum adjusted industries.
• Balance output led growth with spending and earnings, then divide index by the same period a year earlier, subtract 1 and multiply by 100.

A single monthly rise or fall never marks a recession or recovery, so read monthly, 3 month and year on year moves together. A technical recession means 2 quarters of contraction in a row, and extra decimals on a 0.0% print do not show direction.