GDP Growth Rate QoQ

GDP Growth Rate QoQ is the quarterly percent change in UK real output adjusted for inflation. It is the headline of the ONS first quarterly estimate, series ABMI. It covers UK domestic activity using output, spending and income data from 3 approaches. It is expressed in chained volume terms with seasonal adjustment for calendar effects.

It measures production, not welfare, nominal growth or monthly GVA proxy moves. Real means inflation removed while nominal adds price change. Monthly output focuses on GVA as proxy so levels differ from quarterly average GDP.

Reference quarters span three calendar months each. Surveys collect during and after the quarter, with forecasts filling gaps for missing late data. At first estimate data content is about 80% for output, 60% for spending and 40% for income. First estimates appear about 6 weeks after the quarter at 7am UK time.

Quarterly national accounts follow about 13 weeks after the quarter and monthly estimates about 40 days after each month. Each release brings GDP tables and the monthly estimate for the third month of the quarter. First releases revise no earlier data under National Accounts Revisions Policy. Further revisions arrive through quarterly national accounts and annual Blue Book reconciliation.

Growth reflects output by industry, spending choices and income flows, with services often leading.

• Services: output from shops to business services, often the main quarterly driver, split consumer-facing and business-facing across 14 subsectors.
• Production: output from manufacturing, mining and quarrying, energy supply and water and waste services.
• Construction and agriculture: new infrastructure work, housing repair and maintenance, plus farming, forestry and fishing output.

• Household consumption: spending by households on goods and services, including recreation, culture and household goods.
• Capital formation and inventories: business investment and changes in stocks held by firms for future use.
• Government, trade and income: government consumption, net trade of exports minus imports, plus pay, profits, self-employment and taxes less subsidies.

In one illustrative quarter GDP fell 0.3% after a 0.1% fall in the previous quarter, a two-quarter contraction pattern. Output fell in all 3 main sectors: services 0.2%, production 1.0% and construction 1.3%. Spending falls in net trade, household and government consumption outweighed higher capital formation. Annual GDP still rose 0.1% over the full year, while one quarter was revised down 0.1 percentage points and two other quarters stayed unrevised.

Collect cash values: collect cash values before inflation adjustment from surveys, VAT turnover and annual benchmarks, with forecasts for missing late data.

Deflate by double deflation: deflate output with an output price index and inputs with an input price index for each industry. Deflators use lower-level CPI, PPI and SPPI components.

Seasonally adjust: adjust detailed series with X-13-ARIMA-SEATS then add them up to sectors and total. Seasonal effects dominate short moves so raw data cannot show underlying change.

Balance approaches: balance output, spending and income into an average, with output leading where data are fullest. Apply alignment fixes to inventories and private company profits within plus or minus 3000 million pounds per quarter, summing to zero yearly, plus coherence fixes.

Chain-link volumes: convert volumes to previous-year prices, add up, then chain-link into chained volume with yearly updated weights. Re-referencing only rescales levels and leaves growth rates unchanged.

Quarterly growth: calculate percent change on previous period for seasonally adjusted chained-volume GDP. For example, 640000 million pounds then 642560 million pounds gives 0.4% growth, with positive meaning expansion and negative meaning contraction.